FC Seoul is struggling at home. Just three years ago, Seoul used to leverage its 'home advantage,' but this season, it has shown more stable performance on the road. While it seems superficially to be a simple issue of 'luck,' a closer look at the detailed data reveals more fundamental tactical causes.

This season, Seoul has recorded 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses in 9 official home matches and 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in 11 away matches. Excluding cup matches, even within the league, it is a paradoxical trend that results are less favorable in games where they receive more support and cheering from home fans.

Holding the ball for a long time, but few goals... the shadow of 'ineffective possession'

In the last 8 matches, FC Seoul's playing style shows that it maintains a high average possession rate of 59.5% at home. This reflects the intent to dominate the game and pressure the opponent. However, the actual expected attacking productivity does not correlate with this possession rate. During the same period, they averaged 10.8 shots, 3.3 shots on target, and an xG (expected goals) of 1.05, with a shot-to-goal ratio expectation of just 0.097, which is very low.

In contrast, away from home, they have a lower possession rate of 50.1% but recorded 11.8 shots, 4.5 shots on target, and an xG of 1.29. Both shooting efficiency and xG are higher than at home. This can be interpreted as a result of focusing on efficient transitional play rather than possession itself. In actual game situations, they frequently utilize long passes, quick side transitions, and space penetration during away matches.

Reasons for fewer decisive chances: "Many ball touches, but remain in front of the halfway line"

Looking at the touch map of FC Seoul's home games, it becomes clearer. According to data provided by 'Bepro Match Data Report,' the frequency of touches in the buildup phase and midfield is higher than on the road, while the ratio of touches in the penalty box and forward passes following lateral passes is lower. This results in a pattern where many passes lead to repetitive ball rotation rather than shaking the opponent.

Such play produces a stable pass completion rate of 84.8% (based on the last 8 matches) but does not significantly help in creating actual scoring chances. In contrast, on the road, this rate is somewhat lower at 81.9% (based on the last 8 matches), but the attempts to switch to attack are much faster and more direct.

Does the 'psychological burden' of playing in front of home fans slow the tempo?

Seoul tends to slow down the tempo under the pressure of having to 'dominate' at home. Players in the first and second lines often hold on to the ball for too long, and fullbacks frequently reverse the ball back, often seen. This lowers the overall tempo of the game, thereby giving the opposing defense time to reorganize.

The midfielders playing as playmakers (for example, Jeong Seung-won) attempted more forward passes away from home than at home, and the average number of entries into the final third was also higher in away matches (5.2 times) compared to home matches (4.1 times). This difference can be interpreted as an issue related to psychological burden and game management style rather than a simple tactical instruction.

■ Numbers speak of 'Seoul's home-away reversal structure'

As this table shows, Seoul's home tactics of 'holding the ball a lot but striking little' result in lower attacking efficiency compared to their away tactics of 'holding less but striking sharper.' In particular, the xG difference has widened by 0.24 between home (1.05) and away (1.29) based on the last 8 matches, showing a disparity in expected attacking outcomes that is hard to believe for the same team.

Seoul's 'home jinx': a structural problem created by tactics

The struggles at home are not just a consequential phenomenon; they stem from the fact that 'the way matches are managed is fundamentally different between home and away.' In particular, the excessive emphasis on 'possession' in home game management leads to a decrease in tempo and chances, which naturally results in fans' disappointment.

For Seoul to show a strong performance at home again, there needs to be a willingness to take tactical risks that can induce faster and more direct attacking transitions while maintaining possession. Playing 'risk-averse football' that simply secures possession without taking risks for scoring can no longer be the solution at home.

Head coach Kim Ki-dong: "They are capable players. I believe they will improve"

After the match, head coach Kim Ki-dong expressed his regret, saying, "I am truly sorry to the fans for not securing a victory at home. I hoped for a good result following the match against Gwangju, but we couldn't capitalize on our chances, resulting in a draw." He added, "While we do create scoring opportunities, the players tend to rush. However, they are all capable players, and I believe they will get better."

Regarding new striker Klimala, he commented, "He is still in a stage of needing to adapt. The K League has a significant difference in tempo compared to the Australian league, and while he is not overall satisfactory, he has an excellent mindset and is diligent. I expect his performance to improve soon."

In connection with Seoul's defensive rotation, he explained, "Kim Joo-sung has been playing continuously until recently and faced physical burdens, and Park Seong-hoon also stated that he was not in good condition on the match day and could only play for 45 minutes. We plan to rotate three defenders, Yazan, Joo-sung, and Seong-hoon, according to the situation."

At the midpoint of the league, he remarked on the team's situation, "Seoul is currently walking a tightrope. If we do well in one or two matches, we can enter the upper ranks, but conversely, we could drop in the rankings if we falter. However, the ups and downs of the games have decreased compared to last season. The scoring issue, however, continues to be a stumbling block. I believe we will show a more developed Seoul when the season ends."

Now, Seoul will head to Jeonbuk Hyundai for an away match on the 21st. The subsequent home match will take place against Pohang Steelers on June 29. The last time Seoul won at home was on March 29, 2025. With simple calculations, they aim to secure a home victory against Pohang after an extended period of 3 months.

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