Ulsan HD aims for the unexpected. How realistically can they progress past the group stages?
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, hosted in the United States, will be held for the first time with 32 teams. Ulsan HD, which belongs to Group F, takes its first step in the global challenge. This group also includes Borussia Dortmund (Germany), Fluminense (Brazil), and Mamelodi Sundowns (South Africa). At first glance, it may not seem like a 'group of death,' but for Ulsan, it could be the most challenging combination.
Group F will officially kick off at 6 p.m. KST on June 18. In the first match, Dortmund will face Fluminense at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and on the same day, Ulsan will begin the tournament against Mamelodi Sundowns.
Data analysis agency Opta predicted the probability of advancing past the group stage through 10,000 simulations, and Ulsan was rated as the team with the lowest chance of advancing to the Round of 16 in Group F, with a 20.8% probability. The most likely candidates to advance from this group are Dortmund (92.7%), followed by Mamelodi (47.1%) and Fluminense (39.4%).
Ulsan's underestimation is not merely a bias. According to the Opta Power Rankings, Ulsan is ranked at least 120 places lower than the other three teams in the same group, and their performance on the Club World Cup stage has not been favorable. In their past appearances in 2012 and 2020, Ulsan played a total of 4 matches and lost all, finishing in 6th place. Their performance in international competitions lags significantly behind the leading contenders.
Ulsan also has the opportunity to change history. This tournament is no longer merely an 'event-based competition among continental champions,' but has transformed into a global competition rivaling the financial scale of the UEFA Champions League, and Ulsan has stepped onto this stage representing Korea.
Dortmund is the strongest team in Group F. Having last won the Intercontinental Cup in 1997, they come into their first world stage with a perfect record, scoring more than three goals in all of their last six matches. Their probability of winning is the only one in the group above 0.2%, and their chances of finishing first in the group stands at 74.9%. It will be a challenging task for Ulsan to secure points against them.
On the other hand, Mamelodi is Ulsan's first opponent and the most realistic target for securing points. Having won the South African league for eight consecutive years, they clinched the title this season with a 12-point margin. Although they narrowly lost to Pyramids FC in the CAF Champions League final, they boast a potent attack with the top three scorers in the league: Lucas Ribeiro Costa (16 goals), Ikram Rayners (14 goals), and Artur Salas (8 goals), who form a crucial front trio in Miguel Cardoso's 4-3-3 formation. If Ulsan's defense cannot contain their offensive efforts, they may face difficulties from the very first match of the group stage.
Fluminense experienced a stark realization of the gap between Europe and South America after losing 0-4 to Manchester City in the 2023 Club World Cup final, yet they remain a traditional powerhouse. They scored 15 goals in their 11 matches since the league began, interestingly with 12 different players contributing to the scoring, showcasing a variety of offensive pathways. Experienced leader Thiago Silva guides the defense, and their probability of advancing to the Round of 16 is 39.4%, nearly double that of Ulsan.
Nevertheless, Ulsan is not a team that will easily fall. Domestically, they have maintained a stable roster, winning the K League 1 championship for three consecutive years, and Eric Faria has already recorded 8 goals in the 2025 K League season. He faced Fluminense four times during his time with Brazil's Juventude, making them a familiar opponent. He also scored in a practice match against Charlotte FC, enhancing his sharpness.
Additionally, the 'guardian deity' Jo Hyun-woo remains a key player. He orchestrated 'the miracle of Kazan' against Germany in the 2018 Russia World Cup and is regarded as one of the top goalkeepers in Group F by Opta. FIFA also noted, "Jo Hyun-woo has been named to the K League Best XI for eight straight seasons," expressing expectations for his performance. His presence is expected to be a cornerstone of the defense in this tournament.
Ulsan arrived in the United States on the 6th, establishing Charlotte as their base camp to strengthen their squad. The outcome of their first match against Mamelodi could significantly impact the overall tournament flow beyond just a simple win or loss. The eyes of the global football community are on whether Ulsan can become the protagonist of an upset.
[OSEN]