Although it is the summer vacation season, the prices of airline tickets to Japan, a popular travel destination for Koreans, are being sold at less than half the usual price. There are also observations that rumors about a major earthquake potentially hitting Japan in July are causing citizens to hesitate about traveling.
On the 4th, a ticket sales website listed round-trip tickets departing from Incheon International Airport to Kansai Airport in Osaka on the 5th, returning on the 7th, for as low as 112,400 won. One-way tickets are priced at 56,200 won, which is cheaper than the Seoul-Busan KTX fare (59,800 won).
The lowest price for a flight from Incheon to Osaka departing on October 11 and returning on the 13th is about 210,000 won. The fare for flights on July 5, during the peak season, is less than half the price of tickets for the same route with a trip scheduled three months later during the off-peak season.
The decline in demand for flights to Japan is not limited to Korea. Greater Bay Airlines in Hong Kong announced on the 2nd that it will suspend regular routes connecting Hong Kong with Yonago in Tottori Prefecture and Tokushima in Tokushima Prefecture starting in September. They explained that the decline in passengers traveling to Japan has made it difficult to maintain the routes.
The cause is attributed to the 'July earthquake theory.' The Japanese manga artist Ryoga Tatsuki wrote in his 2021 publication, 'The Complete Version of the Future I Saw,' that 'a major disaster will occur on July 5, 2025.' Although the manga did not receive much attention when it was published in 1999, it gained notoriety after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake due to the cover phrase, 'The great disaster is on March 2011.' The author noted that he drew the comic based on prophetic dreams.
As rumors spread, the Japanese government stepped in to quell them. The Korea Meteorological Administration said in May, 'Experts say that with the current level of science, the timing, location, and magnitude of an earthquake cannot be predicted,' adding, 'Such related speculations should be regarded as unreliable.'
However, over 1,000 earthquakes have occurred in the Tokara Islands, located between Kyushu and Okinawa, from the 21st of last month to the previous day, bringing the theory of a major earthquake back into focus. On the 2nd, a strong earthquake of magnitude 5.6 occurred, followed by another of magnitude 5.5 the day before.
On social media (SNS) in Japan and Hong Kong, claims regarding the so-called 'Tokara Law' suggest that if earthquakes occur successively near the Tokara Islands, a major earthquake will take place elsewhere. The Japanese government has analyzed that there is an 80% probability of a major earthquake occurring along the Pacific coast within the next 30 years.
Citizens considering traveling to Japan are in a quandary. A person surnamed Jeong, 39, has booked airline tickets to travel to Okinawa with his five-year-old daughter and two-year-old son at the end of this month but is contemplating whether to cancel. Jeong said, 'I dismissed it as a rumor, but I heard a pretty big earthquake occurred yesterday, and I'm scared,' adding, 'When I asked a friend in Japan, I was told they are also quite afraid there.' A person surnamed Kwon, 36, mentioned, 'My sibling's family is supposed to go to Japan next month, but due to the earthquake theory, when I looked into it, I became scared and discouraged them.'
A Japanese student studying in Korea has not returned home despite the vacation. Sayuri Sato, 21, said, 'My mother told me, 'Since there may be an earthquake in Japan, don't return home this vacation and stay in Seoul.''