Hong Tae-kyung, a professor in the Department of Earth System Science at Yonsei University and one of the country’s top experts in the field of earthquakes, is garnering attention for saying that the so-called "Nankai Earthquake Scenario" could actually occur.
The Nankai Earthquake Scenario is one of the stories that appeared in the 1999 manga "The Future I Saw" by Tatsuki Ryo. This manga, which predicts 12 events, had already predicted the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011.
"The Future I Saw" includes a passage that states, "The real catastrophe will come in July 2025. A major earthquake will occur between Japan and the Philippines, causing a tsunami that will exceed three times that of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, flooding areas of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines." This story has heightened anxiety between Japan and its neighboring countries, leading to the emergence of the "Nankai Earthquake Scenario."
On the afternoon of the 3rd, Professor Hong appeared on CBS Radio's "Park Jae-hong's One-on-One Debate" and explained that Tatsuki Ryo's predictions might not simply be fiction.
Professor Hong said, "(About 30 years ago) when I was in graduate school, I learned that there was a 50% probability that a major earthquake would occur within 30 years in the Nankai Trough (a 700 km long underwater valley extending from Shizuoka Prefecture near Tokyo to the eastern sea area of Kyushu). Now the probability has risen to 80% within the next 30 years, which means it is a certainty that a major earthquake will occur."
He continued, "This has been anticipated for a long time, so it would not be surprising if it occurred at any time, but now that such prophetic texts are being published, concerns have intensified."
Professor Hong noted, "Earthquakes off the coast of Kyushu occur in cycles of 100 to 150 years, with those earthquakes being magnitude 7 or slightly above 8."
He added, "It has been quite some time since an earthquake occurred in the Tokai region off the coast of Tokyo. If the Nankai region were to be damaged first and a worst-case scenario of a chain reaction occurred, resulting in simultaneous damage up to the coast of Tokyo, it could lead to a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, according to the Japanese government and academia."
Regarding a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, Professor Hong explained, "It is like 32 magnitude 8.0 earthquakes occurring at once," adding, "According to a report by the Japanese government, if a large earthquake of magnitude 9.0 occurs in the Nankai Trough, the damage would be immense: 320 trillion won in damage, 300,000 casualties, and 2.5 million homes destroyed."
He stated, "If a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs in the Nankai Trough, our country will also shake by more than 30 cm," adding, "So our government is also said to be considering countermeasures."