If more people say, 'I will get married and have children,' the low birth rate issue could be alleviated. In this regard, the Low Birth Rate and Aging Society Committee released a survey result indicating that the proportion of unmarried men and women who have 'intention to marry' increased from the 61% range to the 65% range in just one year. On the other hand, the Office for Government Policy Coordination, under the Prime Minister, stated that the proportion of unmarried youths who have 'marriage plans' significantly decreased from the 75% range to the 63% range over the past two years. The two government agencies released opposing survey results.
In response, experts noted, "There may be differences in results depending on the survey period or method, but such a large discrepancy in official government data is problematic. It is right to improve surveys that may hinder policy formulation or public trust."
◇ Low Birth Rate Committee: 'Intention to marry 61%→65%' VS Office for Government Policy Coordination: '75%→63%'
The Low Birth Rate Committee released the results of the 'Marriage, Childbirth, Parenting, and Government Low Birth Rate Policy Awareness Survey' on the 20th. The response rate among unmarried men and women indicating 'intention to marry' rose from 61% in March of last year to 65.2% this time. In particular, the percentage of women who responded that they have the intention to marry increased by more than 10 percentage points from 48.2% in March of last year to 57.4% in March of this year.
Alongside this, the positive perception of marriage among both men and women has been increasing, from 70.9% (last March) to 71.5% (last September) to 72.9% (this March).
However, the Office for Government Policy Coordination's survey results appeared to show the opposite. According to the '2024 Youth Life Status Survey' announced by the Office, the percentage of unmarried youths who expressed that they have 'marriage plans' decreased significantly from 75.3% (2022) to 63.1% (2024), dropping by more than 10 percentage points for both men (79.8% to 67.8%) and women (69.7% to 57.5%).
There are also significant differences in the survey results regarding childbirth intentions between the two institutions. In the Low Birth Rate Committee's survey, the percentage of childless men and women who responded that they have 'thought about having children' rose from 32.6% in March of last year to 39.7%. In contrast, in the Office's survey, the percentage of men and women who responded that they have 'intention to give birth' fell from 63.3% (2022) to 59.3% (2024).
A 30-something female office worker, Jeong Mo, said, "It is difficult to trust both data when both the Low Birth Rate Committee and the Office for Government Policy Coordination, as government agencies, present such opposite results in similar surveys."
◇ Differences in survey subjects, periods, and questions… 'It is desirable for one institution to provide consistent data.'
The reason for the discrepancy between the Low Birth Rate Committee and the Office's survey results is primarily due to differences in their samples. The Low Birth Rate Committee's survey targeted 2,650 citizens aged 25 to 49 nationwide, while the Office surveyed 15,098 youths aged 19 to 34. An expert commented, "The Low Birth Rate Committee may have received many responses indicating 'intention to marry and give birth' by surveying a relatively older demographic."
There is also a difference in the survey periods between the two institutions. The Office's 'Youth Life Status Survey' is a nationally approved statistic comparing 2022 and 2024. The Low Birth Rate Committee conducts surveys every six months, comparing March and September of 2024 and March of this year in succession. An expert stated, "To properly compare survey results from different institutions horizontally, it is right to contrast results from the same period."
The questioning methods also differed between the two institutions. The Office asked whether there was 'an intention to marry or give birth' in a binary fashion. In contrast, the Low Birth Rate Committee used options such as 'want to marry now,' 'want to marry someday,' 'have specific plans,' 'don't want to marry later,' and 'have never thought about it' for marriage intentions. For childbirth intentions, respondents had to choose from 'intend to have children,' 'do not intend to have children,' 'considering it,' and 'no thoughts on it.' An expert noted, "If only the most negative responses are excluded and all others are interpreted as positive, the results may differ from reality."
Experts point out that the situation where statistical data, which forms the basis for policy formulation, varies in this way needs improvement.
Lee Cheol-hee, professor and head of the Population Cluster at the National University of Korea's Future Strategy Institute, said, "It is undesirable for multiple institutions to conduct fragmented surveys with small samples in competition. There is a need for adjustments to ensure that credible data is produced consistently by one institution."