The Korea Meteorological Administration has projected that this summer is likely to be unusually hot compared to previous years. The Korea Meteorological Administration noted on the 23rd through its “three-month forecast” that the probability of temperatures in June to August being “higher” than average is greater than the probability of them being “similar or lower.”
According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the probability of June temperatures being higher or similar to the average (21.1–21.7 degrees) is estimated at 40% each, while the probability of them being lower is 20%. For July (average temperature 24.0–25.2 degrees) and August (24.6–25.6 degrees), the probability of temperatures exceeding the average is projected to be 50%, with a 40% chance of being similar and only a 10% chance of being lower.
When averaging the outlooks from 474 climate prediction models from 11 national meteorological authorities including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, temperatures this summer are also expected to be higher than average. The probabilities for being hotter than average are summarized as 58% for June, 64% for July, and 71% for August.
The Korea Meteorological Administration explained, “The sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific is higher than average,” and that “when the sea surface temperature is high, convection activities in that region become active, increasing the likelihood that a high-pressure system will develop in Korea.”
In June and July, the sea surface temperatures in the northern and southern Indian Oceans, respectively, are expected to be higher than average, which is likely to bring heat to Korea. In August, the fact that springtime snow cover in Europe was lower than average is another factor indicating potential heat. When there is less snow cover, more heat is released from the ground to the atmosphere, allowing for the better development of high-pressure systems in that region, which increases the likelihood of a high-pressure system forming towards Korea due to atmospheric waves.
Precipitation is expected to be above average in June, while it is projected to be similar in July and August. The probability of June precipitation being more or similar to the average (101.6–174.0 mm) is estimated at 40% each, with a 20% chance of being lower. For July (average precipitation 245.9–308.2 mm) and August (225.3–346.7 mm), the probability of being similar to the average is 50%, while the probabilities of being greater or lower than average are 30% and 20%, respectively.
The likelihood of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula is expected to be similar to or lower than average. The probabilities of the number of typhoons being similar to or fewer than the average (2.5) are estimated at 40% each, while the chance of having more is 20%. The Korea Meteorological Administration noted, “This summer, there is a high possibility that typhoons will move towards the waters southeast of Japan or near Taiwan,” and explained, “In a situation where the North Pacific high-pressure system is positioned south of the Korean Peninsula, typhoons could move northward to the Korean Peninsula.”