The Soviet Union's spacecraft 'Cosmos 482' is set to crash to Earth this weekend. Typically, spacecraft and artificial satellites burn up in the Earth's atmosphere upon re-entry, thus not affecting the surface. However, Cosmos 482 was designed for Venus exploration, where the atmospheric conditions are harsher than those on Earth, and a considerable amount of debris is expected to fall to the surface.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) announced on the 9th that Cosmos 482 is expected to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere between the 9th and 10th. The estimated time of re-entry has an error margin of up to 20 hours, making it difficult to pinpoint the exact time; the midpoint is around 4:30 p.m. on the 10th Korean time.
Cosmos 482 is a Venus exploration probe launched by the Soviet Union in 1972. Specific details about its structure or mission are not known. Experts assume it has a similar structure to the Venera 8 probe, which actually landed on Venus. In this case, its diameter is about 1 meter, and its weight is about 495 kg. Unlike Venera 8, which successfully landed on Venus, Cosmos 482 encountered problems right after launch and was unable to escape Earth's orbit.
Initially, Cosmos 482 is known to have disintegrated into four pieces after launch. Three of these pieces crashed shortly after launch near New Zealand, while the remaining piece has been orbiting Earth in an elliptical path for 53 years before finally crashing.
Most space debris burns up in the Earth's atmosphere. Experts are concerned about the debris from Cosmos 482 because it was designed as a Venus exploration probe. Since it was built to withstand the harsher environment of Venus's atmosphere compared to that of Earth, there is a possibility that the Earth's atmosphere may not serve as an adequate protective layer. Marco Langbroek, a satellite tracking expert from the Netherlands, explained in an interview with Space.com, 'Cosmos 482 was designed to pass through the Venusian atmosphere, so it could survive re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere intact and collide with the surface.'
It is also difficult to estimate the precise crash location. Due to the orbital inclination angle of Cosmos 482 being 52 degrees, the estimated re-entry point covers the entire surface between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south. However, since 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by water, experts believe there is a high likelihood it will crash into the ocean. Marcin Pilinski, a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, noted, 'The probability of it landing in a populated area is virtually zero.'