Two-thirds of global warming since 1990 has been attributed to the wealthiest 10% of the world.
Researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Humboldt University in Germany, and the University of Melbourne in Australia presented an analysis quantifying the impacts of inequality on climate change in the journal Nature Climate Change on July 7 (local time).
Scientists are noting that as climate change intensifies, vulnerable communities, such as those in developing countries or low-income groups, suffer more. Most developing countries have little responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions but experience extreme weather events like storms and floods more frequently. In contrast, wealthy countries or individuals have a larger carbon footprint. A carbon footprint refers to all carbon dioxide emitted from human activities or the consumption and production processes of goods.
The research team tracked greenhouse gas emissions across various income tiers from 1990 to 2020 and assessed how they contributed to rising global average temperatures and the occurrence of extremely hot and dry months. They analyzed the probability and frequency of extreme temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions from the top 10%, 1%, and 0.1% income earners in the United States, European Union (EU), India, and China based on domestic consumption, public and private investments, and trade.
In 2020, the global average temperature was 0.61 degrees higher than in 1990. The research team stated that approximately 65% of this increase can be attributed to emissions from the world's top 10%. The wealthiest group bears greater responsibility, with the richest 1% accounting for 20% of global warming. The wealthiest 0.1% was found to be responsible for 8%.
The wealthiest 1% contributed to an increase in extreme heat events occurring once every hundred years, amounting to 26 times more than those with average income. They also had 17 times more impact on droughts in the Amazon compared to those with average income.
The research team indicated that greenhouse gas emissions from the wealthiest 10% in the U.S. and China have increased the occurrence of extreme temperatures in vulnerable areas by 2 to 3 times. Notably, this phenomenon is more severe in historically low greenhouse gas emitting tropical regions, such as the Amazon in South America, Southeast Asia, and South Africa.
The researchers explained that this study highlights the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions based on income and climate justice, showing how consumption by the affluent has impacted extreme weather events. Karl Friedrich Schloesser, a professor at Humboldt University and head of IIASA's Integrated Climate Impact Research Group, noted, "If everyone emitted greenhouse gases like the bottom 50% of the global income distribution, the world would have minimized warming since 1990," adding that addressing climate inequality is crucial for effective climate action, while emissions like those from the top 1% could have raised temperatures by 6.7 degrees.
Sarah Schoengart, the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology researcher leading the study, stated, "The extreme climate change demonstrates that it is not just a result of greenhouse gas emissions but is tied to lifestyle and investment choices, ultimately linked to wealth," adding that climate policies aimed at reducing emissions from wealthy emitters are necessary.
The researchers argued that targeting the financial flows of high-income earners could yield significant effects. They emphasized that charging relatively wealthy greenhouse gas emitters could help provide necessary support to vulnerable countries. Assigning climate change responsibility according to emissions could be more just and effective in slowing global warming.
Professor Schloesser said, "If we do not address the responsibilities of the wealthiest in society, we risk losing one of our most powerful tools to reduce climate harm."
References
Nature Climate Change (2025), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02325-x