The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) selected 15 quantum computing development companies from North America, Europe, and Australia to participate in phase one of the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) on the 3rd (local time). This plan aims to predict practical quantum computers and their application fields by 2033. There are evaluations that the U.S. military has taken serious steps to select promising companies and technologies that are likely to be practically applied within 10 years from among dozens of quantum computing firms.
Currently, over 60 companies are estimated to be developing quantum computers worldwide. However, the methods of implementation and levels of development vary widely. It is like a time of 'hundred schools contending' and 'warlords dividing the land.' It remains unclear which company will develop quantum computing technology that will bring significant changes to industries and economies. Even Microsoft in the U.S. announced in February that it had created 'a highly error-resistant topological qubit (qbit),' but the academic community has responded with skepticism regarding this claim.
The program seeks to find quantum computing systems with a disruptive impact, where the calculated value far exceeds the expense, by comparing the technologies and development plans of various corporations. It also aims to identify the corporations that develop the most useful approaches among several quantum computing firms.
The companies selected in the first phase range from large computing companies such as IBM and Hewlett-Packard (HP) to startups like Quantinuum in Colorado, IonQ in Maryland, Rigetti Computing in California, Node Quantum, headquartered in Quebec, Canada, and Xanadu in Toronto. All are developing various technologies to implement quantum bits, or qubits, which are key components of quantum computers. DARPA plans to select three additional companies soon.
Joe Altepeter, DARPA QBI program manager, said, 'U.S. quantum computing experts reviewed the documents submitted by each corporation and their oral presentations throughout the day to select the companies participating in the first phase. The selected corporations will be evaluated to determine if the proposed concepts can be utilized industrially.'
DARPA's verification process is carried out in three stages. As each stage progresses, companies that are unlikely to secure quantum computing technologies that exceed production expenses by 2033 will be gradually excluded. The verification process involves 300 experts drawn from major U.S. national research institutes and universities. They will investigate the likelihood of failure from a physics and engineering perspective.
In the first phase, which lasts six months, each company must create and submit a list of 60 questions covering the materials and physical background of their computing systems, related technologies and supply chains, and talent recruitment strategies. Corporations are required to provide details about the technologies and prove that the concepts are valid and that they can produce innovative quantum computers within 10 years. Companies that pass this process will move on to phase B, which lasts one year and involves rigorous evaluation of whether the company can secure technology on schedule.
In the final phase C, an independent verification team will conduct substantial verification of each company's computer hardware. They will use strict criteria different from the standards each company used to evaluate the performance of existing quantum computers. Success will be determined when the performance clearly exceeds that of supercomputers when transitioning to quantum computing.
Companies participating in this program must share details about their technologies with DARPA. However, experts believe that companies that perform well in evaluations will gain credibility as future quantum computing manufacturers and secure a launching pad for growth. Julien Camirand, co-founder and CEO of Nordquantique, stated in a release, 'Participating in this initiative will serve as evidence that our company's technology possesses tremendous potential and can provide useful quantum computing technologies in the medium term.'
The industry views this program as a clear signal that the U.S. Department of Defense is taking quantum computing very seriously. There are also assessments that it represents efforts to gain an edge in the quantum science and technology competition with China.
Various technologies are competing to implement qubits, the basic unit of quantum computing, including superconducting, ion trap, photons, neutral atoms, and spins. Policymakers and scientists expect that this program will provide an opportunity to select technologies among these that have high economic value. DARPA recently announced that Microsoft and CyQuant have entered the final stage of a pilot program (US2QC) conducted prior to the QIB program. This program also aims to verify industrially useful quantum computing technologies, similar to QBI.
The U.S. military's efforts to 'pick the wheat from the chaff' in quantum computing technology is a task that needs to be resolved. There are outstanding issues such as a lack of consensus in the scientific community regarding the fields where quantum computing can be applied and the rigorous evaluation of numerous competing hardware technologies. Recently, the trade war sparked by the U.S. has also become a mountain to overcome.
According to U.S. market analysis firm Markets and Markets, the cost of key components has risen due to the tariffs policy of the Trump administration, and there is growing uncertainty regarding market volatility and international cooperation, which is likely to slow the pace of quantum computing development. A significant number of materials and components used in quantum computers are still sourced from China, Japan, and the Netherlands. In this situation, U.S. corporations are facing rising production costs, supply delays, and concerns from investors as the manufacturing costs of quantum hardware increase while international partnerships weaken.
Manager Altepeter noted, 'This plan aims to identify and support efforts by U.S. policymakers to ensure that innovative quantum computers that overcome defects genuinely advance.' Brian DeMarco, a professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, stated in an interview with British scientific media New Scientist, 'If the QBI program succeeds, the quantum computers developed subsequently will revolutionize various industries from advanced materials to new synthetic catalysts.'
References
DARPA QBI (2025), https://www.darpa.mil/news/2025/companies-targeting-quantum-computers