The government is accelerating the launch of the Healthcare Personnel Supply and Demand Forecast Committee (Forecast Committee). Previously, on the 2nd, a bill to establish the Forecast Committee passed a national assembly plenary session.
The core function of the Forecast Committee is to discuss medical school enrollments after 2027. The goal is to enhance the objectivity and social acceptability of medical school enrollments through a committee centered on experts. Although the government initially planned to discuss medical school enrollments starting next year through the Forecast Committee, discussions will now begin with the 2027 medical school enrollments due to delays in processing the bill.
The Ministry of Health and Welfare announced on the 3rd that it plans to prepare for commissioner recommendations before the law takes effect so that the appointment process can begin quickly after implementation. The ministry stated, "Even before the bill is enacted, we will provide prior notice regarding the qualifications and recommendations of expert commissioners to related organizations," adding, "To secure adequate discussion time, the committee must be launched as soon as possible."
The ministry will also initiate the application process for designating supply and demand forecast centers. The supply and demand forecast center is a dedicated institution that analyzes data related to forecasting and supports the concretization of models based on the discussions of the Forecast Committee.
Whether the conflicts in the medical community triggered by the medical school enrollment increase policy can be resolved through the Forecast Committee is the key issue. Currently, there are disagreements between the medical community and the government regarding how to operate the Forecast Committee.
The Korean Medical Association (KMA) is in a position to decide later whether to participate in the Forecast Committee based on the opinions of its members. The KMA noted, "There are many aspects of the structure and content of the Forecast Committee that we find difficult to agree with," while keeping the possibility of participation open. It is reported that 28 out of 30 executive directors voted in favor of participation during a board meeting held on the 2nd.
The KMA stated, "The basic conditions that we have been advocating for regarding the Forecast Committee, namely independence, expertise, and collateral, have ultimately not been secured," but added, "We will make a final decision on whether the KMA should participate after a comprehensive review of several factors, including physicians' rights to practice, the public's right to health, and the future of healthcare."
The KMA has demanded changes in the structure of the Health and Medical Policy Review Committee (Health Policy Review Committee), a body for discussing policies in the healthcare sector, alongside the Forecast Committee. Additionally, it has been decided to establish a separate research body within the KMA for physician forecasting to conduct forecasting research independently from the Forecast Committee. The KMA stated, "We will do our utmost to create objective evidence by establishing a physician supply forecasting center within the association," and urged that the government should first prepare a concrete plan to improve the composition and discussion structure of the Health Policy Review Committee.