In the third quarter of this year, domestic retail corporations' expectations for economic recovery reached the highest level in four years. This is influenced by expectations for the new government, a rebound in the stock market, the consumer coupon policy, and the summer vacation boom.
The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry investigated 500 companies in department stores, large discount stores, convenience stores, supermarkets, and online shopping for the 'Retail Business Sentiment Index (RBSI) for the third quarter of 2025,' and reported that the forecast was 102 on the 13th. An RBSI above 100 means that many corporations view the next quarter's retail market positively compared to the previous quarter, while below 100 indicates the opposite.
The forecast for the third quarter of this year (102) surpassed the benchmark (100) for the first time in four years since the third quarter of 2021 (106). Compared to the previous quarter (75), it also surged by 27 points.
KORCHAM analyzed that this is a result of expectations for the new government and consumer stimulus measures such as consumer coupons, along with the rising stock market and interest rate cuts expected to synergize during the summer vacation season.
Expectations for the government's launch were also high within the retail sector. More than half (52.4%) of responding corporations said, 'The launch of the new government will have a positive effect on our sector.' Only 17.6% expressed that it would have a negative impact.
By industry, the outlook varied. Convenience stores (108) and online shopping (105) exceeded the benchmark, while supermarkets and department stores recorded the benchmark at 100. In contrast, large discount stores (89) were the only ones below the benchmark.
In particular, convenience stores, which showed the highest expectations among industries, anticipated an increase in demand for beverages and ready-to-eat meals due to an influx of people during the summer vacation period. Convenience stores are also expected to benefit directly from the government's consumer coupon policy due to many small payments and good accessibility.
In the case of department stores, the wealth effect from the stock market rebound is expected to drive sales of premium products such as luxury goods, high-priced fashion, and jewelry, and the summer vacation is anticipated to create a synergistic effect, positively influencing them.
In contrast, large discount stores are projected to face burdens from not being able to utilize consumer coupons and from price competition with online channels and supermarkets.
Lee Hee-won, head of KORCHAM's distribution and logistics promotion center, said, 'While there are high expectations for the new government's launch and consumer stimulus measures, sustained policy support is necessary for actual consumption recovery.'