Analysis has emerged that the number of housing units scheduled for completion in the metropolitan area next year will decrease to 100,000 units. It is expected that this year's completion volume will be 140,000 units, indicating a reduction of 40,000 units (28.5%) compared to this year.
Researcher Kim Seong-hwan from the Construction Industry Research Institute noted at the seminar 'Diagnosis of the Construction and Real Estate Market in the Second Half of 2025 and Strategies for Revitalizing Domestic Consumption' held on the afternoon of the 24th at the Construction Hall in Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, that the number of housing units in the metropolitan area will decrease from 140,000 units this year to 100,000 units next year. He also raised the possibility that the resulting supply gap could trigger price instability. According to Kim, the national permit issuance performance in the first half of this year decreased by about 20% compared to the previous year. Additionally, while the transaction volume of apartments in Seoul rebounded to its highest level since 2020 due to regulatory easing, unsold units in the provinces have increased for eight consecutive months.
Researcher Kim analyzed, 'In the first half of 2025, supply bottlenecks will continue, the recovery trends between the metropolitan area and the provinces will diverge, and the structural transition from jeonse to monthly rent has accelerated, marking fundamental changes in the market.' He further stated, 'In the second half, the impact of the reduction in construction starts may lead to a sharp decrease in the completion volume, making it necessary to design flexible policies that proactively address supply-demand imbalances and demand polarization.'
Researcher Kim stated, 'Early supply of the third generation new towns and public housing, enhancement of private sector viability, strengthening financial accessibility, and improvement of living conditions in the provinces must be pursued in parallel to achieve effective revitalization of the real estate market,' adding, 'It is time to restore policy trust and shift towards a demand-customized strategy.'
Meanwhile, this year's construction orders are expected to increase by 1.9% compared to last year. By institutional sector, public orders are projected to increase by 1.7%, while private orders are expected to rise by 1.9%. In terms of project types, civil engineering is anticipated to decrease by 7.8%, while orders for dwellings and non-residential buildings are expected to increase by 6.2% and 6.6%, respectively. Additionally, construction investment is forecasted to decrease by 5.3% compared to last year.