The gap in housing prices between Gangnam and Gangbuk in Seoul is widening significantly. Projections indicate that the polarization of housing prices will continue in the long term due to the intensification of the core area concentration phenomenon.
On the 20th, real estate brokerage platform JipToss analyzed the actual transaction data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, revealing that from January to April this year, the number of reported transactions at record prices in the three districts of Gangnam (Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa) was 25 times that of Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk.
From January to April this year, there were 1,633 reported transactions setting new records in the three districts of Gangnam, but only 65 in Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk. The proportion of reported transactions among total sales also reached 32.7% in Gangnam's three districts, meaning 'one out of three transactions was at a reported price,' whereas Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk were only 2.8%.
The gap was also significant in the speed of market recovery. The average selling price of the 'national standard area' (less than 85 square meters) apartments in the three districts of Gangnam recorded 2.3837 billion won in 2025, surpassing the previous peak (in 2022) by more than 11%.
In contrast, the national standard area in Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk remained at 736.62 million won, which is still 6% lower than the peak (in 2021). Accordingly, the price gap ratio between the two areas expanded from 2.6 times in 2021 to 3.2 times in 2025.
Notably, this extreme polarization is a pattern that also appeared at the onset of the previous bull market. Indeed, during the bull market from 2019 to 2020, the number of reported transactions in the three districts of Gangnam surged from 840 in the first half of 2019 to 4,262 in the second half, an increase of more than five times, heating up the market ahead. At the same time, Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk began to warm up with 1,826 transactions and exactly six months later, in the first half of 2020, reached a peak of 2,979 transactions, entering a full ascent trajectory.
Due to this past pattern, some analysts suggest that the current gap could be a precursor to a recovery in the overall market. Despite the fact that data for May and June has yet to be finalized, the market is detecting signs of a rebound, with emergency sales in non-Gangnam areas depleting and some asking prices rising. However, considering the different economic conditions and high interest burdens compared to the past, there are also cautious views suggesting that it is too early to predict that past patterns will repeat.
Lee Jae-yun, CEO of JipToss, noted, 'Considering the past six-month lag pattern and the recent signs of a rebound in the market, it is highly likely that non-Gangnam areas will move towards recovering to previous peak levels in the short term.' However, he added, 'This does not mean that the price gap between regions will narrow. Rather, the trend of concentration towards core areas with high asset value is a macro trend, so the deepening polarization itself is likely to continue in the long term.'
He further stated, 'Ultimately, the market in the second half of the year will exhibit a complex pattern where two phenomena occur simultaneously: efforts to recover previous peak levels in non-Gangnam areas and the widening gap with core areas.' He emphasized that it is a time to carefully read market changes that are moving at different speeds and backgrounds rather than a simple booming market where all areas rise.