The notice about the development restriction zone established in the Wonji-dong area of Seocho-gu, Seoul, announced as a new residential area on November 5, 2022. /Courtesy of News1

The government's plan to supply 30,000 dwellings by additionally lifting the development restriction zone (greenbelt) is expected to be somewhat delayed. Last year, during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, the government announced a plan to supply 50,000 dwellings through the lifting of the greenbelt, and it planned to reveal new candidate sites for additional supply of 30,000 dwellings by the first half of this year. However, with the new government coming in, the real estate policy has yet to be specified, making it difficult to announce the additional greenbelt areas as originally scheduled this month.

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on the 12th, it is uncertain whether the government's announcement of additional greenbelt candidate sites will take place as planned this month. Internally, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is also in deep contemplation regarding the announcement of the policy. A ministry official, when asked whether the new candidate sites for land supply would be announced as planned this month, simply said, "It is under review."

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport stated that it would prepare new land through the lifting of the greenbelt as part of the housing supply plan announced on August 8 last year. As a follow-up measure, it announced in November that it would supply 50,000 dwellings by lifting the development restrictions in four areas: Seongnam's Seoripul, Goyang Daegok, Uiwang Jeongnan, and Uijeongbu Yonghyeon. At that time, the ministry stated, "We plan to announce an additional 30,000 dwellings in locations preferred by the public in the first half of this year," signaling further greenbelt lifts.

Graphic=Jeong Seo-hee

However, it is expected that the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport will have difficulty announcing new candidate sites for land this month due to the new government coming in following the early presidential elections. This is because it would be difficult to announce the previous government's housing supply plan without finalizing the real estate policy of the newly established government. Announcing a new supply plan while the new government's Vice Ministers are being appointed could also pose a burden on the ministry.

Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that the new government will completely abolish the housing supply plan through greenbelt lifts. As the housing demand is high in the metropolitan areas, it is difficult to entirely exclude the greenbelt lifting option in order to provide new land. The election pledges do not specifically mention the expansion of supply through greenbelt lifting. However, President Lee Jae-myung indicated a pragmatic stance toward greenbelt lifting by stating during his presidential campaign last year, "We need to flexibly consider land supply through greenbelt lifting."

There are prevailing forecasts that the new government's housing supply plan will be difficult to announce immediately. Even if the real estate policy framework of the initial government is established, specific measures are expected to be decided only after the current appointments of Vice Ministers at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport are completed. Given that this government has announced the operation of a "citizen recommendation system" for the selection of high-ranking officials, it is anticipated that clear supply measures will be announced once this process is finished.

A real estate expert noted, "The direction of expanding supply will be maintained, but while there will be differences in specific plans, there is a possibility of increasing the supply quantity centered on public housing near the metropolitan area."