The composite leading indicator (CLI) of Korea, compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), has reached its highest level in 3 years and 7 months.
According to the OECD on the 13th, last month's CLI for Korea was 101.08, the highest level since November 2021 (101.09).
The OECD's CLI is an index designed to capture turning points in the economy, which is used to predict economic trends 6 to 9 months in advance.
If this index is greater than 100, there is a high likelihood that the future gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed the long-term trend. Conversely, if it is below 100, the opposite is likely.
The CLI for Korea was below 100 for 20 consecutive months from July 2022 (99.82) until January of last year. Since then, it showed a gradually upward trend but fell for four consecutive months from August to November of last year, and has been rising continuously since December.
Last month, Korea's CLI was the second highest among the 12 OECD member countries released by the OECD, following the United Kingdom (101.16). Korea ranked fourth in December of last year and January of this year, and has maintained second place since March.
It is also higher than the averages of the Group of 20 (G20) and the Group of Seven (G7). The average for the G20 is 100.50, and for the G7, it is 100.51.
Domestic indicators suggesting a rebound in the economy are also emerging. In June, the Bank of Korea's consumer sentiment index (CCSI) stood at 108.7, an improvement from April (93.8) and May (101.8).
In June, exports reached $59.8 billion, marking the largest performance for the month of June in history. Despite the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, exports in February, March, April, and June increased compared to a year earlier.
The won-dollar exchange rate, which soared to the 1480 won range in April, has recently dropped to the upper 1300 won range, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) surpassed the 3200-point mark on the 11th, the highest in 3 years and 10 months.
However, the uncertainty surrounding the tariff negotiations with the U.S. remains a burden. This is because President Trump announced that he would impose a 25% reciprocal tariff on Korea starting next month on the 1st. Our government aims to maximize national interests in negotiations before the reciprocal tariff takes effect.