On the 26th, the International Finance Center holds the briefing on the Outlook for the Global Economy and International Financial Markets in the Second Half of 2025./Courtesy of International Finance Center

In the second half of this year, global stock prices are expected to continue their upward trend, and the global dollar is projected to maintain its weakness. The International Financial Center on the morning of the 26th at the Bank Hall in Jung-gu, Seoul, stated during a briefing on the "2025 Second Half Global Economy and International Financial Market Outlook": "In the second half, global stock prices will rise due to robust corporate performance and economic stimulus policies in major countries."

The International Financial Center cited the background for the rise in stock prices as policy support from the United States' tax cut and increased fiscal expenditure, along with an increase in corporate profits due to ongoing investments in the field of artificial intelligence. However, it added that the rise in stock prices may be limited as corporate profit forecasts are revised downward due to a slowdown in the real economy in the second half.

Yoon In-goo, head of the International Financial Market Analysis Team at the International Financial Center, predicted, "As the status of the dollar weakens, active economic stimulus in Europe and emerging markets, along with differences in regional stock price valuations, will somewhat ease the dominance of the U.S. stock market."

The dollar is expected to continue its weak trend. He analyzed that concerns over deteriorating fiscal health, downgrades in national credit ratings, and falling confidence in U.S. assets may accelerate moves away from the dollar. Additionally, if signals of growth slowdown are detected in real indicators or if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, the dollar's weakness may further intensify.

Director Yoon noted, "As President Trump pushes forward policies that widen the trade deficit, global uncertainties are increasing, leading to asset sales by foreign investors. This could result in a decline in the value of stocks and bonds, leading to a weakening of the dollar."

Economic growth in the world is expected to slow in the second half due to trade conflicts and policy uncertainties. The International Financial Center presented global quarterly growth rates (on an annualized basis compared to the previous quarter) as 3% for the first quarter, 1.9% for the second quarter, 1.5% for the third quarter, and 2% for the fourth quarter. In particular, it forecasted that the impact of the U.S. tariff policy will be significant in the third quarter.

Jeong Hyung-min, head of the Global Economic Analysis Team at the International Financial Center, stated, "Even if the U.S. suspends mutual tariff impositions, tariffs are likely to drive up U.S. import prices in the third quarter, leading to weakened consumer purchasing power and reduced consumption. The trend of growth slowdown will continue into the fourth quarter, but the impact will be less severe than in the third quarter."

Meanwhile, the International Financial Center identified 'expanding fiscal deficits' as the most concerning variable in the second half. Deputy Minister Yoon stated, "Tariffs and hegemony issues are already reflected in the market. While the dollar and U.S. government bonds may show weakness, there aren't suitable assets to replace them, so the financial status of the U.S. is unlikely to be shaken easily."

He added, "The U.S. has been downgraded in its credit rating due to fiscal health issues, and the concerns about expanding fiscal deficits may reignite with the passage of the tax cut bill. Additionally, countries like Europe and Japan, which are increasing their defense spending, may also have their fiscal issues impact the bond market."