The immediate challenges facing President Lee Jae-myung, who won the second early election in constitutional history, are twofold. One is to resolve the severe political polarization exacerbated by the martial law declared on Dec. 3 and subsequent presidential impeachment, and the other is to demonstrate the ability to respond to economic situations such as trade negotiations with the United States. To achieve the 'social integration' he promised during the election campaign, concerns about the ruling party's monopolization of administrative and judicial powers with its 171 seats in the National Assembly must also be addressed.
◇Birth of the 171-seat mega ruling party… “There will be backlash if the judiciary is touched”
President Lee has repeatedly stated during this election that 'there will be no political retaliation.' He mentioned his intent to unify a polarized society that has gone through martial law and impeachment. This context is also behind his recruitment of numerous conservative figures, excluding those categorized as the so-called 'extreme right' who oppose impeachment.
However, within the party, there is a push for legal amendments that appear to exert 'pressure on the judiciary.' Following the Supreme Court's decision to uphold President Lee's violation of the Public Official Election Act, there was controversy over proposed legislations such as the ▲Special Prosecutor Act for the Supreme Court Chief Justice ▲Supreme Court Chief Justice Hearing ▲Expansion of Supreme Court Justices to a maximum of 100 ▲Appointment of non-lawyer Supreme Court Justices. In the final days of the election, then-candidate Lee Jae-myung directly stated, '(The law for appointing non-lawyer Supreme Court Justices) is not in line with my or the party's intentions.'
In the political arena, there have been ongoing concerns that the Democratic Party will monopolize legislative, judicial, and administrative powers after taking office. According to the National Assembly Act, the ruling Democratic Party, as the first party in the Assembly, can unilaterally process bills in committee and in the plenary session, and if President Lee does not exercise the right to request reconsideration (veto), 'uncontested legislation' becomes possible.
Political consultant Park Sung-min noted, 'In the current situation, if the president pushes for political and judicial reforms or touches on ideological aspects, there is a risk of new conflicts emerging.' Political commentator Lee Jong-geun also stated, 'The judiciary should not be touched,' warning that if President Lee takes the same path as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in attempting to weaken the judiciary, there will inevitably be a 'reaction' from the public.
In other words, managing the balance between the ruling party's 'policy-driving force' and 'monopolization phobia' is regarded as the top priority. Park Sung-min stated, 'In the last three years, nothing could be accomplished because President Yoon Suk-yeol and the Democratic Party each held power in the executive branch and the National Assembly,' adding that while it is positive that the Democratic Party can smoothly advance governance with control over legislative and administrative powers, it should not touch on ideological issues like judicial reform right now.
Park Sang-byeong, a visiting professor at Inha University, stated, 'In terms of Korean sentiment, the majority party prefers to have checks on its power rather than holding all power.' He added, 'Even if it is not right away, if President Lee rapidly pushes for judicial reforms, there may be a rise in the power of checks. The Democratic Party's unchecked authority is not a good approach in that aspect.'
◇Attention required to the unintended effects of Moon's government 'cleansing of corruption'
There are many points made about needing to learn lessons from the Moon Jae-in administration's 'cleansing of corruption.' It relied heavily on its strong support base and focused solely on purging members of past administrations, resulting in damage to its morals, such as with the 'Ministry of Environment blacklist.' If President Lee becomes entangled in the work of 'punishing insurrection,' he risks losing a significant number of moderate conservative votes in next year's local elections.
Political commentator Lee Jong-geun remarked, 'Former President Moon Jae-in promised 'integration' and aimed to embrace everyone, but he ultimately failed to realize it,' explaining, 'Among those who supported the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, he should have embraced genuine conservatives and those reflective of the government's mismanagement, but they too became targets of purging. The wounds for moderate conservatives on this issue are very deep.' He further stated, 'The extent to which moderates and conservatives who did not support Lee Jae-myung three years ago, but have chosen him this time, are carried through will be crucial for the success or failure of governance.'
This commentator noted, 'If the government continues the 'hate-inciting approach' as it has after the election, the operational momentum for governance will not last long,' adding that political commentator Kim Sang-il remarked, 'When the Democratic Party and the president-elect push for policies relying solely on the position of the majority party without building public consensus, it will inevitably lead to a conclusion like that of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.' Attention will also be needed regarding how much the conservative figures will be included in the future cabinet formation.
◇Urgent need for U.S. trade response and domestic demand stimulation measures
The 'first directive' anticipated by President Lee, based on his election victory, is the operation of the 'Emergency Economic Response Task Force (TF).' Measures must be put forward to respond to U.S. trade pressures and plans for stimulating domestic demand should also be devised. During his last press conference the day before the election, he stated, 'The urgent issue is the trade negotiations with the U.S.,' adding, 'Those known as strongmen prioritize their own national interests through strong leadership. Korea must also prioritize practical diplomacy centered on national interests.'
Professor Park Sang-byeong stated, 'It is true that there are significant doubts about whether the Lee Jae-myung administration can produce economic outcomes in the context of passing on all the economic, diplomatic, and domestic challenges from the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.' Political commentator Lee Jong-geun added, 'In order to ensure stable governance, promises to revive the livelihood economy must be fulfilled.'
Kim Sang-il also said, 'Given the national economic crisis and severe domestic demand crisis, overcoming these challenges ultimately requires a foundation of national unity; otherwise, we cannot move forward.' He emphasized that expending energy on political strife would prevent the environment needed to resolve economic development and policy issues, and that public disappointment would quickly grow, making it difficult for the administration to endure for long.