The result of the second presidential impeachment in constitutional history and the early election was '49.42%'. This figure could not be reached by former President Moon Jae-in (41.08%), who came to power as a result of the judgment of the national corruption scandal, or by former President Yoon Seok-youl (48.56%), who became the head of the conservative government from the two top figures of the Moon Jae-in judiciary. The declaration of martial law for the first time in the 6th republic offset concerns about 'the overwhelming legislative power of the 171 seats in Congress' and the 'monopoly of judicial and administrative power.' In addition, the conservative party's strategy, which dismantled the existing values of the progressive camp and emphasized growth, drew moderate votes.
◇The frame of the 'riot sympathizing party,' unable to surpass the 'Lee Jae-myung judgment theory'
After the martial law situation, the People Power Party deployed the slogan 'Lee Jae-myung is still not acceptable.' This was a measure targeting the judicial risk, which is Lee Jae-myung's biggest weakness. President Lee Jae-myung is currently facing a total of five trials for 12 charges and eight cases, including the violation of the Public Official Election Act, for which the Supreme Court recently decided to overturn the ruling with a guilty intention, as well as corruption in the development of Daejang-dong, Baekhyeon-dong, and Wirye New Town, illegal donations to Seongnam FC (merged trial), instigation of perjury, remittance to North Korea by SSANGBANGWOOL, and personal misuse of corporate credit cards of Gyeonggi Province. He is not free from morality issues and has been cited as the most unlikable figure among prominent politicians.
On the other hand, it is commonly believed that the 'sympathizing forces of the riot' frame has overwhelmed the Lee Jae-myung judgment theory in this election. The key point is the 'asphalt extreme turn' shown by the People Power Party after the martial law situation. Many mainstream party members, who are pro-Yoon (親윤석열), either supported the martial law or sent a message of 'one body' by visiting the imprisoned president. After the arrest warrant for former President Yoon was issued, when a riot occurred at the western district court, the chairman of the emergency response committee stated, 'We must first examine the causes of their anger.'
◇The disappearance of Kim Moon-soo's 'shadow election'
By failing to draw a line from former President Yoon, attention towards the candidate themselves has also diminished. It has turned into 'Yoon Seok-youl vs. Lee Jae-myung' season 2, rather than a 'Kim Moon-soo vs. Lee Jae-myung' confrontation. People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo, even at the end of last month, could not detach from conspiracy theories about election fraud. He also promised to abolish the early voting system. This aligns with former President Yoon, who declared martial law based on claims of election fraud. However, suddenly recently, he stirred controversy by urging supporters, stating, 'I will participate in early voting.'
In the political arena, the term 'shadow election' has emerged. Political commentator Kim Sang-il stated, 'The candidate is Kim Moon-soo, but in reality, it's a game against the 'shadow of Yoon Seok-youl,' who is facing accusations of illegal martial law and insurrection.' He added, 'The integrity of candidate Kim Moon-soo and even his good deeds were overshadowed by Yoon Seok-youl's shadow, and issues that would typically be major setbacks for the Democratic Party did not arise,' asserting that 'the party has failed to resolve the illegal martial law crisis, thus failing to secure a position as a force to check and judge the 'one-man rule' of Lee Jae-myung.'
◇Tax cut and stock market issues preempted... 'Moderate conservatism' has taken hold
This provided justification for the Democratic Party to claim 'moderate conservatism.' The Democratic Party seized the conservative agenda to attract conservative votes lost due to martial law. This is based on the belief that the People Power Party cannot attract moderates beyond the far-right forces. The party also pushed for a corporate law amendment based on the abolition of the financial investment income tax and a declaration of postponement of crypto asset taxation. This strategy targets the approximately 14 million individual investors, regardless of political inclination.
President Lee Jae-myung placed 'growth' as the primary objective during his New Year's press conference in January. This was five months after the party's charter explicitly pointed to a 'basic society.' His remarks were a complete reversal of the Democratic Party's economic policy paradigm, which had been named 'income-led growth' and focused on distribution. It is perceived as a change of heart by an opposition politician who previously advocated for a land value tax. Critics also mentioned that he shook the party's foundation for the sake of the presidency. However, he countered this with references to the 'black cat, white cat' theory by Deng Xiaoping, the Communist Party leader who led China's reform and opening.
The conference document included statements such as, 'Ideology and factions do not feed us,' 'as long as a mouse is caught, it doesn't matter whether it's a black or white cat,' and 'pragmatism detached from ideology and factions is the driving force for overcoming crises and achieving growth.' It also mentioned the need to 'break away from the good-evil dichotomy' in relation to tax justice and working hours, which were once sacred to the progressive camp.
◇Differentiating real estate policy against 'anti-Moon'
In February, President Lee introduced the 'inheritance tax reform' and identified 'the majority of the middle class in the metropolitan area' as its beneficiaries. He kept in mind the regions where public sentiment on real estate worsened during the Moon Jae-in administration. President Lee lost by a margin of 0.7% points in the last election, which he analyzed as primarily due to 'the failure of the Moon Jae-in administration's real estate policy.' In fact, the 14 districts in Seoul where President Lee lost include a significant portion of the 'Han River belt,' such as Mapo, Yeongdeungpo, Dongjak, Seongdong, Gwangjin, and Gangdong.
The Democratic Party also proposed a bill to raise the overall deduction limit and the spouse deduction limit, both currently set at 500 million won, to 800 million won and 1 billion won, respectively. If the inheritance tax exemption reaches 1.8 billion won, it will greatly benefit residents of the so-called Han River belt. In the same month, the Democratic Party-led amendment to the tax law, which expands the eligibility for applications for the exemption from comprehensive real estate tax payments, was also passed. While not a direct tax cut law, a party official stated that it signals, 'even if the Democratic Party comes to power, it will not hit real estate.'
On the 8th of last month, President Lee appeared on an economic YouTube joint talk show and stated, 'There is no way to prevent houses from being approached as investment or speculation tools. Attempting to forcibly block it has led to many side effects.' He specifically mentioned the previous belief that 'houses are for residential purposes,' adding, 'in hindsight, that is impossible.' This implies a desire to create alternative investment avenues without repeating the 'real estate mistakes' of the Moon Jae-in administration.
Political commentator Lee Jong-geun analyzed the recent election results as a consequence of ▲political legitimacy ▲voter judgment regarding economic benefits. He noted, 'The period of regime change, which lasted '10 years' after the 1987 system, first collapsed during Moon Jae-in's time, as the failure of real estate policy destroyed voters' economic interests,' stating that “Lee Jae-myung has won a degree of expectations regarding economic desires, such as 'I will protect your assets' and 'growth comes first,' learning from that failure.'
This commentator stated, 'Kim Moon-soo, on the contrary, failed to attract the 'forces seeking economic stability' at all,' further stating, 'Instead, he was consistent only with political slogans about the Democratic Party's legislative recklessness and the morality of Lee Jae-myung.' He also stated, 'Not only did he fall short in the political justification of judging the martial law forces, but he also fell behind the Democratic Party in seizing voters' 'economic stability desires.'