In the 21st 6.3 presidential election, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea won, leading to a reorganization of the political landscape into a ruling party with a majority and a minor opposition for the first time in three years. The ruling party, the Democratic Party of Korea, formed a 'giant ruling coalition' by adding the Rebuilding Korea Party and the Progressive Party, gaining control over both the executive and legislative branches. As a result, the early governance of the Lee Jae-myung administration is expected to gain significant political momentum.
In contrast, the People Power Party, the leading conservative party, is predicted to fall into internal strife and factional conflicts due to the electoral defeat, with possible intensification of accountability disputes. As competition for the next party leadership intensifies, factional struggles within the party may escalate within the framework of 'pro- and anti-impeachment.'
◇Simultaneous control of legislation and administration, effectively no political checks
With this victory, the Democratic Party of Korea holds both legislative and executive powers. This marks the fifth major ruling coalition since the democratization of Korea in 1987, and it has been three years since the National Assembly shifted to a minor ruling party opposition under President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration in 2022. The Democratic Party of Korea holds 171 seats in the 22nd National Assembly, and the entire ruling coalition has reached 190 seats, enabling it to pass legislation unilaterally.
With a majority seat base, the National Assembly Speaker position, which holds the authority to convene sessions and bring bills to the floor, as well as a majority of the standing committee chair positions (11 out of 17), is secured by the Democratic Party of Korea. This gives it a high possibility of leading the National Assembly in a different context than the previous confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.
The Democratic Party of Korea, which was the opposition party in the previous government, proposed a total of 31 impeachment motions, of which 13 passed in the National Assembly. Consequently, for the first time in history, the president's acting authority was suspended. In response, former President Yoon Suk-yeol exercised his veto power 25 times, starting with the Grain Management Act and extending to the Kim Keon-hee special prosecution law, to nullify bills. Adding the vetoes exercised by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo (8 times) and Vice Minister Choi Sang-mok (9 times) after former President Yoon's impeachment brings the total to 42.
Under the Lee Jae-myung administration, it is anticipated that major national policy implementations will commence based on strong legislative authority, without the excessive use of impeachment and veto powers. The National Assembly Research Service stated in its report 'Analysis of Legislative Activities of the 21st National Assembly,' published in December last year, that 'the status of ruling and opposition parties has a significant impact on the success of legislation,' reporting that the ruling party's approval rate was approximately 3 percentage points higher. President Lee Jae-myung is also expected to respond strongly to opposition resistance, leveraging the electoral victory as momentum for governance. After the 22nd general elections, the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction has become the mainstream, making it likely that the president will hold an advantageous position in the relationship between the party and the presidency.
The president's extensive personnel authority is expected to further strengthen governance control. The president holds authority over the Prime Minister, ministers, heads of the Board of Audit and Inspection, the Prosecutor General, the National Intelligence Service Director, the Commissioner of the Korean National Police Agency, the Commissioner of the National Tax Service, and the Governor of the Bank of Korea. The president can also exercise direct personnel authority over more than 7,000 high-level positions, including vice-ministers and heads of public institutions.
◇Extraordinary session of the National Assembly to convene two days after the election... Will legislative dominance begin?
The Democratic Party of Korea has already announced a 'legislative drive' by convening the extraordinary session of the National Assembly on June 5, just two days after the election. The Democratic Party commented, 'The schedule for convening the session and the bills to be processed have not yet been decided, and discussions are ongoing.'
Some expectations suggest that the Democratic Party may pass amendments to the Public Official Election Act and the Criminal Procedure Act. The amendment to the Public Official Election Act includes deleting the requirements for 'acts' related to the crime of disseminating false information in the election law. Earlier, the National Assembly's Legislation and Judiciary Committee passed it, led by the Democratic Party, during its plenary session on the 14th of last month. President Lee Jae-myung received a guilty verdict in the Supreme Court on the 1st of last month for allegedly disseminating false information regarding 'acts.' If the amendment passes in the National Assembly, a judgment of 'dismissal (no punishment due to the repeal of the law)' may become possible in President Lee’s retrial. The first retrial for the Public Official Election Act violation at the Seoul High Court is scheduled for the 18th.
Another proposed law is the amendment to the Criminal Procedure Act, which includes a provision to suspend criminal trials for elected presidents during their term. The Legislation and Judiciary Committee of the National Assembly also processed this exclusively in its plenary session on the 7th of last month. If the Democratic Party pushes forward with this legislation, it may be interpreted that the ruling party aims to institutionally resolve President Lee's judicial risks.
In addition to these bills, there is a possibility that the 'Special Law for Investigation of the Emergency Martial Law of Dec. 12-3', a special law related to the spouse of former President Yoon Suk-yeol, Kim Keon-hee, and special investigation laws related to the Chae Sang-byeong case may also be processed during the extraordinary National Assembly session in June. Following the retirement of Constitutional Court Justices Moon Hyung-bae and Lee Mi-sun in April, the appointment process for their successors is also expected to gain momentum.
Throughout the election period, President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the need for a 'supplementary budget for domestic demand stimulation' to revive the economy. Following the first supplementary budget of 13.8 trillion won, he is expected to push for a second supplementary budget of over 30 trillion won without delay. During his candidacy, President Lee stressed, 'It is important to revitalize the domestic economy immediately as it is currently difficult for the working class within the range of what can be done through supplementary budgets.' The second supplementary budget is expected to focus on consumption-boosting expenditures such as the expansion of local currency and the provision of living support funds.
The Lee Jae-myung administration now has the opportunity to tackle large-scale national policy tasks such as economic, judicial, and political reforms, holding the reins of governance from the outset of the administration. However, there are concerns that the ruling party with a majority-minor opposition structure may create side effects.
Lee Jae-myung, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, noted, 'Large ruling coalitions that hold both administrative and legislative powers were already experienced during the Moon Jae-in administration. Those who did not vote for President Lee Jae-myung may view this dominance as political retaliation, and the current political confrontation may continue to escalate.' He added that, 'Instead of unilaterally exercising power, especially with the local elections coming next year, it is important to show respect for the opposition, taking the former president Yoon as an example.'
◇Debate over accountability... Intensifying conflicts between pro-Yoon and pro-Han factions over next party leadership
In contrast, the People Power Party is expected to engage in fierce competition for the next party leadership following its electoral defeat. A confrontation is forming between the pro-Yoon faction, which has been the mainstream within the party, and the pro-Han faction, classified as 'pro-impeachment' and a minor group.
The debate over the party's identity regarding the 'impeachment controversy' has already escalated from a nerve-wracking tension to an open conflict. A day before the election, Kim Yong-tae, the emergency countermeasures committee chairman, stated that 'the party's stance against the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol must be nullified.' In response, Representative Yoon Sang-hyun, a leading figure among the 'anti-impeachment' faction, stated, 'We should not go beyond the roots and identity of our party.' On this, Han Dong-hoon, a representative of the 'pro-impeachment' faction, asserted, 'The identity of our party is not to support illegal martial law but to prevent illegal martial law.'
With the party leadership in disarray, it is anticipated that the pro-Han faction, primarily made up of first-time and proportional representatives, will form a non-mainstream coalition, while the party's mainstream will likely regroup as the 'anti-impeachment' faction. Politicians such as Na Kyung-won and Yoon Sang-hyun, who took the lead in opposing the impeachment of former President Yoon, as well as Kim Moon-soo, who lost in the presidential election, are also being mentioned as prospective candidates for the next party leadership.
A People Power Party official stated, 'Just like during the time of former representative Hong Joon-pyo, the pro-Yoon faction may back Kim as a candidate. However, as of now, there have been no definite movements from the pro-Yoon faction.'