The early voting for the 21st presidential election has shown record-breaking enthusiasm day after day.
As of 2 p.m. on the 30th, the National Election Commission's tally showed a cumulative early voting rate of 28.59%. Unlike the 20th presidential election, where early voting only occurred on weekdays, the rate has continued to rise, starting with 19.58% on the first day and increasing on the second day.
The high early voting rate reflects the establishment of the system and the heightened political interest of voters.
With over 10 years since the introduction of the early voting system, the perception that 'voting day is three days' has spread, and the convenience of being able to vote anywhere in the country without separate registration has significantly increased participation among young people, dual-income households, and frequently mobile voters. In fact, as early voting has become as common as regular voting, there is a trend of wanting to utilize regular voting days entirely as holidays.
Additionally, voter interest in this presidential election, held amid unprecedented political circumstances such as the impeachment of the president and martial law, is higher than ever.
In a recent survey conducted by the National Election Commission and Korea Gallup, 86.8% of respondents said they would 'definitely vote', and including those who said they would 'vote if possible', the rate reached 96.3%. Political commentator Lee Jong-geun analyzed, 'For the first time in history, the president has been arrested, released after cancellation of detention, and is undergoing trial for insurrection, leading the public to actively express their opinions.'
By region, there is a notable 'early mobilization' trend in progressive areas such as Honam. As of 2 p.m., the early voting rate in Jeonnam reached 48.48%, the highest in the country, followed by Jeonbuk (45.4%) and Gwangju (44.28%). In contrast, Daegu, which has significant distrust regarding early voting, recorded the lowest rate at 20.53%, while Seoul stood at 28.03%. This pattern reflects the political inclinations of each region and the mobilization psychology of voters.
In the past, a high early voting rate was interpreted as a signal of mobilization among the progressive faction, but there is growing analysis suggesting that this formula is no longer valid in recent elections. In fact, although the 20th presidential election set a record for early voting at 36.93%, the winner was Lee Jun-seok of the People Power Party.
Park Seong-min, head of political consulting firm Min, said, 'Now, many elderly people are participating, so it cannot be said that a specific party benefits solely from the early voting rate,' and added, 'Regular voting is merely shifting to early voting.' Political commentator Lee Jong-geun also diagnosed, 'I thought early voting would lead to an effect that propels regular voting, but in reality, it tends to dilute the voters participating in regular voting.'
Some analysts suggest that if the enthusiasm for early voting continues into the regular voting, it could work to the advantage of the Democratic Party of Korea. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong noted, 'This presidential election is strongly perceived as a 'judgment election' due to the impeachment of the president,' adding, 'Considering that the People Power Party has criticized early voting in the past, it is reasonable to judge that Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party would benefit more.'