As the June 3 presidential election approaches, the unification of Kim Moon-soo, the People Power Party candidate, and Lee Jun-seok, the Reform Party candidate, which has been the biggest issue for the conservative camp, seems virtually collapsed.
The 28th, one day before early voting, was cited as the deadline for unification, but with Lee Jun-seok's camp refusing to back down, forecasts suggest inevitable dispersion of conservative votes.
The People Power Party has accepted the failure of unification as a given and is transitioning to a victory strategy in a three-way contest.
On the 28th, Kim Moon-soo's camp spokesperson Shin Dong-uk said, “Unification is not a matter that can be mechanically determined by a deadline,” but added, “the phase of resolving this through negotiation and contact has already passed.”
The party leadership also expressed confidence that “even without unification, candidate Kim can win in a three-way contest,” actively appealing to conservative voters to prevent them from casting protest votes. This means employing the logic that if they vote for candidate Lee Jun-seok, candidate Lee Jae-myung will inevitably win, thereby leading them to ‘vote for unification’ for Kim Moon-soo.
Candidate Lee Jun-seok held an emergency press conference the previous day, stating, “There will be no candidate unification with forces responsible for the state of emergency,” dismissing any possibility of his withdrawal. He rather called for Kim Moon-soo to withdraw, reiterating his intent to complete the race. Within the People Power Party, there is a shift towards expecting no more unification with Lee's firm stance.
However, according to the current public opinion, the analysis suggests it will be difficult to narrow the gap with candidate Lee Jae-myung without unification between the two candidates. According to a poll conducted by Realmeter at the request of Energy Economy Newspaper from 1,003 people from the 26th to the 27th, candidate Lee Jae-myung recorded a support rate of 49.2%, candidate Kim Moon-soo 36.8%, and candidate Lee Jun-seok 10.3% (conducted via 100% automated response method, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and a response rate of 10.1%. For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Committee).
This survey was conducted just before the prohibition on publicizing polling results and suggests that if the dispersion of conservative votes becomes a reality, the possibility of candidate Lee Jae-myung receiving a majority of votes may increase.
Candidate Lee Jun-seok is also under increasing controversy for citing explicit and violent expressions related to women's bodies during a TV debate the previous day. The Democratic Party of Korea and the Democratic Labor Party are calling for his withdrawal, labeling his remarks as “verbal violence that cannot be put into words.”
Lee has stated, “I cannot help but point out the hypocrisy of the Democratic Progressive camp, which remains silent on issues within its own camp,” but observations have been raised that this controversy may lead to a loss of support.
Choi Chang-ryeol, a special professor at Yongin University, noted, “In a presidential election held early due to impeachment, it will be difficult for candidate Kim Moon-soo, who does not change his stance regarding his separation from former President Yoon Seok-yeol, to expand his support base without unification during the remaining period.”
Critic Choi Soo-young pointed out, “Conservative unification would be synergistic if done when candidate Lee Jun-seok is on the rise in support rates like during the 1st and 2nd TV debates,” adding, “In the current situation, the key is to prevent Lee Jae-myung from securing a majority and to raise the support rates of candidates Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok to minimize the gap with candidate Lee Jae-myung.”