Ten days ahead of the 6·3 presidential election, a poll released on the 24th showed that Lee Jae-myung, the candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, received 46.6% support, while Kim Moon-soo, the candidate from the People Power Party, recorded 37.6%, indicating the gap between the two candidates has narrowed to single digits. Lee Jun-seok, the candidate from the Reform Party, maintained double-digit support.
According to a survey conducted by Realmeter from the 22nd to the 23rd of 1,009 voters aged 18 and older at the request of Energy Economics Newspaper, the suitability of candidates for the next presidential election was assessed (with a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points).
Compared to the previous survey (conducted on the 20th to 21st), candidate Lee Jae-myung and candidate Kim Moon-soo both fell by 1.5 percentage points (p) and 1% p, respectively. In contrast, candidate Lee Jun-seok saw an increase of 1% p to 10.4%, continuing an upward trend. Realmeter analyzed, "He has established his presence due to a finishing strategy and the effect of television debates."
Following them, Kwon Young-guk of the Democratic Labor Party received 1.6%, Hwang Kyo-ahn, an independent candidate, received 0.9%, and Song Jin-ho, also an independent candidate, received 0.3%.
Regionally, candidate Lee Jae-myung saw a decline in the metropolitan area (Seoul down 11.6 percentage points, Incheon-Gyeonggi down 8.6 percentage points), while candidate Kim Moon-soo fell significantly in the Busan-Ulsan-South Gyeongsang Province area (down 16.6 percentage points). Candidate Lee Jae-myung's support in the PK (Busan-Ulsan-South Gyeongsang Province) region rose by 15.8 percentage points to 50.2%, and in the Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong region, which is considered a casting vote area, it also rose by 7.2 percentage points to 55.7%.
Candidate Kim Moon-soo's support in Seoul rose by 8.5 percentage points to 47.2%, while in the Incheon-Gyeonggi area, it saw a slight increase of 1.7 percentage points to 36.0%. Candidate Lee Jun-seok's support also rose in the metropolitan area (Seoul up 2.7 percentage points, Incheon-Gyeonggi up 4.5 percentage points).
Looking at the support rate among centrist voters, candidate Lee Jae-myung's support decreased by 2 percentage points from the previous survey, totaling 48.4%, while candidates Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok each rose by 1.5 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, recording 32.4% and 14.6%, respectively. In particular, while candidate Lee Jae-myung's support among conservative voters rose by 3.0 percentage points to 21.9% compared to the previous survey, Kim Moon-soo (67.0%) and Lee Jun-seok (8.3%) both saw declines of 1.8 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, drawing attention.
In a hypothetical head-to-head match, candidate Lee Jae-myung secured 51.1% support, while candidate Kim Moon-soo received 43.9%, giving Lee a lead of 7.2 percentage points. This marks a slight widening from the previous survey (held on May 20-21), where the gap was 6.8 percentage points.
In a head-to-head match between candidate Lee Jae-myung and candidate Lee Jun-seok, candidate Lee Jae-myung received 48.9%, while Lee Jun-seok received 37.0%, maintaining a gap of 11.9 percentage points, similar to the previous week (11.8 percentage points).
Regarding support loyalty, 88.7% of all respondents indicated that they would "continue to support the candidate they are currently backing until the election," maintaining a similar level to the previous week. Only 8.8% responded that they could change their support "depending on the situation," indicating that voters' choices are generally solidifying.
By candidate, 93.9% of Lee Jae-myung's supporters expressed their intention to continue supporting him, the highest figure, while Lee Jun-seok's support was recorded at 74.4%. Both candidates saw a slight decrease in support strength. In contrast, among Kim Moon-soo's supporters, the intention to maintain support rose slightly from 88.6% in the previous survey to 92.1%.
Meanwhile, this survey was conducted via 100% wireless automated response. The response rate was 8.3%. For detailed survey outlines and results, refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.