With just 11 days before the June 3 presidential election, discussions for unification in the conservative camp have once again emerged as a key variable in the political landscape. As support for Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok rises sharply, the People Power Party has not withdrawn its "love call."

Kim Yong-tae, chairperson of the emergency response committee of the People Power Party, said on the 23rd that winning this presidential election for conservatives means the complete ousting of criminal Lee Jae-myung from Korean politics and urged Lee Jun-seok, the Reform Party candidate, to agree to the unification principle.

He also presented concrete measures for unification. The chairperson said, "We have two options: either lead a beautiful unification and form a joint government, or engage in a fair unification, specifically selecting a unified candidate through a 100% open national primary."

On the 21st, the chairperson of the emergency countermeasures committee of the People Power Party, Kim Yong-tae, and the presidential candidate of the Reform Party, Lee Jun-seok, are conversing at the 16th Chosunilbo Asian Leadership Conference (ALC) held at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul. /Courtesy of Chosunilbo

Earlier, Ahn Cheol-soo, a member of the National Assembly and co-chairperson of Kim Moon-soo's presidential campaign, also stated that Kim should agree to unification with Lee Jun-seok before the early voting (May 29-30) and should form a joint government afterwards.

Ahn emphasized, "Unification is not just a political strategy to defeat candidate Lee Jae-myung, but should be the starting point for a coalition government that saves the country from crisis, akin to the spirit of the Provisional Government in Shanghai."

He also revealed plans to assign key national responsibilities to candidate Lee Jun-seok after the unification, sharing major responsibilities with members of the Reform Party.

Yoon Jae-ok, overall election chairperson of the People Power Party, also urged during a press conference that "conditions must be created for a smooth unification negotiation if we are to combine efforts to secure a win."

In contrast, candidate Lee Jun-seok reiterated his stance against unification, expressing his intention to maintain an independent course.

Candidate Lee Jun-seok, after visiting the grave of former President Roh Moo-hyun in Bongha Village, Gimhae, met with reporters and said, "I will not collaborate with forces that instigated a coup d'état after 40 years."

He also reaffirmed his refusal of unification in a press conference the previous day, leading to analyses in the political sphere that unification before the 25th, when presidential ballots are printed, is essentially unlikely.

Nevertheless, the People Power Party is making efforts for unification because the rising support for candidate Lee Jun-seok is concerning.

In a survey released the previous day by Realmeter, candidate Lee Jun-seok's support was recorded at 9.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous survey. Realmeter analyzed that the support rose after the first TV debate. (This survey was conducted using 100% automated response methods with a response rate of 9.5%. For more details, refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee website.)

In a nationwide indicator survey (NBS) also released the previous day, candidate Lee Jun-seok's support reached 10%. This marks an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous survey's 7%. (The survey leveraged a 100% mobile virtual number for phone interviews, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The response rate was 26.7%. For more details, refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee website.)

The People Power Party predicts that if unification with candidate Lee Jun-seok is realized, a viable electoral scenario against Lee Jae-myung will emerge. A representative from the People Power Party campaign said, "We anticipate candidate Lee Jun-seok's support will rise to 15%."

According to the results of a survey by Gallup Korea released that day, Lee Jae-myung's support declined by 6 percentage points from last week to 45%, while Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok recorded support rates of 36% and 10%, respectively. When simply added, the combined support of the two candidates falls within the margin of error of Lee Jae-myung's support. (Randomly-selected mobile phone virtual numbers were used, with a contact rate of 40.5% and a response rate of 17.8%; for more details, refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.)

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, is holding a banner that reads, 'Early voting! A great first step for change in Korea' during a campaign event at Yangsan Water Park in Yangsan City, Gyeongnam, on the afternoon of the 22nd. /Courtesy of News1

Thus, it is assessed that, with the current support rates, it will be difficult to defeat candidate Lee Jae-myung in a three-way contest. If the failure to unify solidifies, the chances for conservatives to gain an advantage in this presidential race are low.

Choi Soo-young, a critic, noted in a call with ChosunBiz that, "If unification were to happen dramatically, there is a possibility of victory for the (conservative unification) candidate based on current support trends."

He added, "Even if they lose, there is room for persuasion that conservatives must unite to counter the Democratic Party and that, in the future, candidate Lee Jun-seok may hold the key rather than Kim Moon-soo."

The Democratic Party views the unification of the two candidates not as a variable, but as a constant, and is increasing its level of countering.

Candidate Lee Jae-myung pressured that day, saying, "Will candidate Lee Jun-seok ultimately not unify with the coup d'état forces? The public must choose between the coup d'état forces and the constitutional preservation forces."