On the 22nd, Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok officially declared that "there will be no unification,” confirming that the completion of the two candidates from the conservative camp, Kim Moon-soo (People Power Party) and Lee Jun-seok (Reform Party), is virtually assured.

As a result, the dispersion of conservative votes has become inevitable, and for the two candidates, the second presidential candidate TV debate on the 23rd with Democratic Party of Korea candidate Lee Jae-myung has emerged as a practical battleground to narrow the gap.

During the first TV debate, Lee Jae-myung showed a somewhat ambiguous attitude, leading to a detection of some loss of supporters. In the second debate, it is highly likely that candidates Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok will highlight their presence with a more aggressive offensive, according to experts.

Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok holds an emergency press conference regarding unification at the National Assembly Communication Hall in Yeouido, Seoul, on 22nd. He announces his intention to continue under the number 4 Reform Party. /Courtesy of News1

According to the results of major opinion polls, including Real Meter and NBS (Embrain Public, K Stat Research, Korea Research, Korea Research Joint), released on the 22nd, the support rate for candidate Lee Jae-myung slightly decreased compared to the previous week, while candidates Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok showed a simultaneous upward trend.

In particular, in the NBS survey, candidate Lee Jun-seok successfully entered the double digits with a support rate of 10%, ranking third behind Lee Jae-myung (46%) and Kim Moon-soo (32%). This survey utilized phone interviews with mobile virtual numbers (100%), with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 26.7% (for more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Survey Deliberation Commission website).

These changes in support rates are interpreted as results of candidate Lee Jae-myung being targeted by concentrated offensives from Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok on economic issues such as "coffee cost of 120 won" and "hotel economic theory" during the first TV debate on the 18th. Real Meter analyzed that during this process, some supporters of Lee Jae-myung in regions like PK (Busan and Gyeongnam), TK (Daegu and Gyeongbuk), and among the self-employed, have defected.

Since candidate Lee Jun-seok demonstrated a strong presence in the first debate, he is currently blocking all incoming calls and minimizing his schedule to focus on preparing for the second debate.

Lee Jun-seok said, "In the last TV debate, candidate Lee Jae-myung repeated the word 'extreme' and employed a strategy of dodging questions, like a defensive football strategy," and predicted, "This time, I will engage in negative campaigning with a purpose." He emphasized, "There are results indicating that if I go head-to-head with candidate Lee Jae-myung in a two-way structure, Lee Jae-myung's support rate will be lower," and "I will attract votes from the soft Democratic Party supporters."

On the 18th, People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo attends the first TV debate among presidential candidates. /Courtesy of Yonhap News

On the other hand, candidate Kim Moon-soo, who did not leave a relatively clear impression in the first debate, has the task of raising his support rate in the situation where unification has fallen through. The second debate is expected to extensively cover social issues such as criticism of the potential dictatorship of Lee Jae-myung, including capturing the judiciary, constitutional amendment, and the 4.5-day workweek pledge.

Political analysts noted that "the social theme aligns closely with the main specialty of candidate Kim Moon-soo, who was the Minister of Employment and Labor and a first-generation labor movement leader," adding, "He must definitely highlight his presence this time." Critic Choi Su-young also remarked, "There remains a psychological resistance among voters who still do not support candidate Lee Jae-myung," emphasizing that "the two candidates should approach the debate with a mindset of pouring everything into it."

Inside and outside the political sphere, attention is focused on whether this second debate will serve as a turning point in the election landscape or a venue to reaffirm the existing structure.