Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, is leading with a support rate of about 50%, significantly ahead of Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok from the Reform Party, while the first TV debate (economics) among the presidential candidates scheduled for the 18th is being highlighted as a key variable that could overturn the situation.
The opinion poll results to be released early next week after the debate are expected to serve as a barometer for predicting the future direction of the election, particularly regarding how much Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok can narrow the gap with Lee Jae-myung.
According to a recent opinion poll (NBS, May 12-14, telephone interview), Lee Jae-myung received 49%, Kim Moon-soo received 27%, and Lee Jun-seok received 7% support.
A Realmeter poll released on the 16th (commissioned by Media Tribune, May 13-14, ARS) showed Lee Jae-myung at 51.9%, Kim Moon-soo at 33.1%, and Lee Jun-seok at 6.6%. In a Korea Gallup poll (May 13-15, telephone interview), the figures were 51%, Kim Moon-soo at 29%, and Lee Jun-seok at 8%, indicating a significant gap (for more details, refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee).
While Lee Jae-myung maintains a solid support rate in the high 40s to low 50s, Kim Moon-soo is in the high 20s to low 30s, and Lee Jun-seok remains in single digits.
In particular, Kim Moon-soo has shown limitations in rallying support even after the unification controversy, while Lee Jun-seok has also failed to break into double digits, seemingly not benefiting from the situation.
Political circles indicate that for Kim Moon-soo to narrow the gap with Lee Jae-myung to within 10 percentage points through the TV debate this weekend, practical momentum for unification or alliances, such as the big tent concept, must be generated.
Given that Lee Jae-myung is maintaining at least a support rate in the high 40s, Kim Moon-soo must break beyond 40% to absorb moderate and undecided votes and impact the race.
There are observations that if Lee Jun-seok also fails to reach the 10% range, his motivation to continue may diminish. According to election law, parties must receive at least 15% of the vote to get a full reimbursement of election costs, and those receiving between 10-15% only get half, so if he continues to stay in single digits, pressure to join the big tent will likely increase from within and outside the party.
In this TV debate, which will focus on economics, both candidates Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok are expected to concentrate on 'attacking Lee Jae-myung.' They will likely criticize Lee Jae-myung's economic policies as populism and highlight their own conservative economic leadership. The previous day's commitment by Lee Jae-myung to transfer the shipping company HMM to Busan is anticipated to be a target.
Lee Jun-seok could also critique not only Lee Jae-myung but also Kim Moon-soo, potentially seeking differentiation within the conservative camp. On that day, at the Chungnam Dankook University Cheonan campus, Lee Jun-seok stated, 'How much more opportunity should we give Kim Moon-soo, who is unable to expand support in the People Power Party? Time is running out.'
Ahead of the debate, there is interest in whether Kim Moon-soo will clarify his relationship with former President Yoon Suk-yeol. Kim Yong-tae, the emergency planning committee chairman of the People Power Party, advised Yoon to withdraw from the party, but Kim Moon-soo is refraining from expressing a direct stance on this matter, saying, 'It's a decision for former President Yoon to make.'
Han Dong-hoon, former representative, urged on his Facebook that 'by the time of the TV debate on the 18th, the party should sever ties with former President Yoon and change its stance against impeachment.'
Choi Chang-ryul, a special professor at Yongin University, stated, 'If Kim Moon-soo does not demand the voluntary withdrawal or expulsion of former President Yoon, he is likely to be attacked by Lee Jae-myung as part of a 'rebellion frame.' He noted that a shift in posture is a minimum prerequisite for changing the election atmosphere, and this condition must be met for Lee Jun-seok to find justification to consider unification.