The Democratic Party of Korea election countermeasures committee noted on the 16th that 'we must not lower our tension' regarding the presidential election dynamics. In particular, it recalled Lee Jun-seok, the People Power Party leader, who stated during the last 20th presidential election that 'Yoon Suk-yeol would win over Lee Jae-myung by a 10 percentage point margin.' During the 20th presidential election, the gap between former President Yoon Suk-yeol and Candidate Lee was 0.73 percentage points.
Although polls indicate that support for Democratic Party of Korea candidate Lee Jae-myung exceeds half, there are analyses suggesting that there could be variables due to the mobilization of 'shy People Power Party' voters.
Cheon Jun-ho, head of the Democratic Party of Korea election campaign strategy headquarters, held a press briefing in the party's office in Yeouido, Seoul, in the afternoon, stating, 'While it appears that Candidate Lee is in the lead, polls are only estimates and do not reflect actual voting results.' He added, 'After various analyses, we are not at a stage to optimistically forecast the presidential election dynamics.'
He added, 'The gap in approval ratings with candidate Kim Moon-soo seems to be decreasing' and noted, 'The campaign headquarters recognizes that 'shy People Power Party' voters exist.'
In particular, there are analyses that variables such as the unification of candidate Kim and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok, and former President Yoon Suk-yeol's departure from the party could cause the People Power Party camp to regroup.
Cheon explained, 'Given the Constitutional Court's decision to remove Yoon Suk-yeol and the division within the People Power Party, there is a high possibility that 'shy People Power Party' voters exist who avoid responding to polls and temporarily do not express their political tendencies.'
It was also analyzed that at the end of the election, a coalition among the broader conservative camp, including former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon, former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok, could occur around candidate Kim.
Cheon, assuming this situation, stated, 'In that case, there could be a change in the dynamics to some extent, and the gap in approval ratings may narrow compared to now.'
He also pointed out that early voting for the 21st presidential election will only take place on the weekdays of the 29th and 30th. Cheon stated, 'There is a possibility that the voter base for the Democratic Party of Korea, including office workers and students, may not be able to participate in voting significantly.'
He also mentioned that Lee Jun-seok, the leader of the People Power Party, projected that 'Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party could win over Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea by as much as 10 percentage points' during the last 20th presidential election.
Kang Hoon-sik, the comprehensive situation room chief of the Democratic Party of Korea election countermeasures committee, stated, 'During the last presidential election, leader Lee Jun-seok said they would win by 10 percentage points, but the actual result was a 0.7 percentage point difference,' adding that 'the values from polls differ depending on the situation and the entities involved.'
During the last presidential election, former President Yoon was leading by a margin of 5 to 10 percentage points against candidate Lee Jae-myung. In this regard, the then leader of the People Power Party, Lee Jun-seok, made such comments the day before the 20th presidential election, but the actual difference in vote rates between former President Yoon and candidate Lee was only 0.73 percentage points. This is interpreted as an intention to prevent such situations.
In this regard, Cheon stated, 'Even during the remaining election campaign period, the campaign headquarters does not plan to announce its target approval ratings,' adding that 'presenting a specific approval rate to voters may appear presumptuous, and conversely, it could unnecessarily create excessive tension or relaxation among the support base.'
Meanwhile, a poll result showing that support for candidate Lee exceeds 51% was released on this day. According to a survey conducted by Korean Gallup from the 13th to 15th among 1,004 voters aged 18 and older nationwide, support for candidate Lee was recorded at 51%.
In a survey conducted by Realmeter at the request of Media Tribune from the 13th to 14th among 1,005 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide, support for candidate Lee was recorded at 51.9%.
The Korean Gallup survey was conducted using random sampling of wireless phone virtual numbers through telephone interviews with interviewers. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a contact rate of 40.7% and a response rate of 16.4%.
The Realmeter survey was conducted through random telephone calls using fully automated response methods based on randomly generated sampling frames. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 9.6%.
For more details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Committee.