The Supreme Court’s en banc panel overturned the lower court's ruling that had acquitted Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate, who was indicted on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act, and sent the case back with a guilty verdict. As the candidate currently leads in polls, the controversy over his "qualification for presidency" is expected to reignite and have significant repercussions in the presidential race.
◇ Democratic Party unlikely to change candidates... Emphasizing 'political oppression' to unite
The Supreme Court returned the case to the Seoul High Court for a review of Lee's election law violation case, raising the atmosphere that the Democratic Party of Korea is indeed facing a "historic-level risk."
The leadership of the Democratic Party of Korea held an emergency meeting of lawmakers immediately after the Supreme Court ruling. Lee commented on the ruling, stating, "It is a judgment that is completely different from my thoughts. The will of the people is the most important."
In the political arena, it is seen that Lee has no obstacles to running as a presidential candidate at this point, and since he is the top contender, the Democratic Party is unlikely to replace him.
Furthermore, it is observed that it is practically impossible for the retrial and appeal process to be completed before the presidential election on June 3, which suggests that it will not impact his eligibility to run.
On the contrary, there are predictions that support around Lee will further galvanize, not only consolidating his base but also strengthening the election frame regarding "the judgment of insurrection." Given that the prosecution's investigation into former President Yoon Suk-yeol and his spouse has recently intensified, there is a possibility that the People Power Party will link this with the Supreme Court ruling to categorize them as "responsible for insurrection."
Lee Joon-han, a professor at the University of Incheon’s Department of Political Science and International Relations, stated, "Since the primaries have already finished, it seems they will have to carry it forward," adding, "There is nobody within the party to suggest replacing the candidate, and they will use the claim of political oppression as an opportunity to unite the Democratic Party in their own way."
◇ Qualification controversy inevitable until just before the presidential election... People Power Party likely to launch a counterattack with overwhelming offensive
However, Lee is now in a position where he has to run for the presidency amid the controversy over whether the president's non-prosecution privilege applies to trials that took place before the election. The controversy over his qualifications is unavoidable.
As a result, once the final candidate of the People Power Party is determined and the main election begins, Lee's judicial risk is expected to become even more pronounced. The People Power Party is expected to accelerate their offensive against Lee while speeding up consolidation among candidates, seeking opportunities for a counterattack during the remaining period leading up to the presidential election.
Kweon Seong-dong, the floor leader of the People Power Party, condemned the ruling, saying, "Lee is responsible for legal violations and has mocked the public by delaying the trial," and demanded, "He should resign from the candidacy immediately."
As Lee effectively received a guilty-spirited ruling from the Supreme Court, forecasts are emerging that the dynamics of the 21st presidential election will be unpredictable until right before the election date, displaying a truly chaotic state.
Eom Gyeong-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, noted in a call with ChosunBiz that "(Lee's) candidacy will be maintained," but added, "Once the final candidate of the People Power Party is determined and he enters the main election, Lee's judicial risk will become fully prominent."
He further commented, "The conservative camp has been suppressed by 'Oh Daemyung' and lacked momentum to rebound, but this Supreme Court ruling could serve as an opportunity for conservatives to unite," asserting that "the chaos will likely continue until right before the presidential election, making it difficult to predict even a step ahead."
There are also predictions that there could be a change in Lee's support rate, which has remained in the 40% range. In particular, there is a possibility that the sentiment of the moderate voters may shift. A source in the political realm stated, "With the support rate of moderate voters for Lee having risen up to the level just before the last presidential election, it can be seen that a variable has occurred," and added, "Moderate voters will start to reconsider. "