With the fact that Acting Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will run in the early presidential election on June 3, discussions on forming a 'big tent' against Lee Jae-myung in the broad conservative and centrist camp are expected to gain momentum. Han, who expressed his intention to resign from his prime ministerial position on the 1st, is likely to officially declare his candidacy as early as the 2nd.
In the political arena, given the differences between various factions, the competition for dominance, and the determination of some candidates to persevere, it is seen that there are significant obstacles to actual unification. Furthermore, the lack of time to coordinate these conflicts adds to the variables, as the deadline for presidential candidate registration is May 11, leaving only ten days.
◇ Will political newcomer Han Duck-soo become the center of the 'big tent'?
Political attention is focused on whether Prime Minister Han will unite with the final candidate from the People Power Party to become the centerpiece of the big tent. Subsequently, the formation of an alliance with candidates like Lee Jun-seok from the Reform Party and Lee Nak-yon, former permanent advisor to the New Future Democratic Party, will also be crucial.
Despite the ongoing intra-party primaries, the leadership of the People Power Party has shown an active stance on the big tent concept. Kweon Seong-dong, the floor leader, noted, "It would help protect the democratic system if politicians worried that Lee Jae-myung would make the country a dictatorship could unite as one," adding that "once the party candidate is determined, it is uncertain who that person will be if they unite with Prime Minister Han."
Both of the 'top two' candidates, Kim Moon-soo and Han Dong-hoon, currently running in the People Power Party primary, agree in principle with the big tent concept. However, there is a clear disparity in positions regarding the lead and methods for unification, and neither candidate is actively initiating discussions.
Candidate Kim was proactively supportive of unification with Prime Minister Han in the early days of the primaries. He even mentioned the 2002 'Roh Moo-hyun-Jeong Mong-joon'-style opinion poll model as a method for unification. It has been reported that he left open the possibility of conceding the People Power Party presidential nomination to Prime Minister Han through methods like 'candidate negotiations' and 'endorsements.'
However, within the camp, there are reports that the factions regarding unification with Prime Minister Han are divided between those supporting 'Han Duck-soo's endorsement' and those backing 'Kim Moon-soo.' An official from Kim's camp said, "In the early days of the primaries, there was a prevailing sentiment to support Prime Minister Han, but recently, there is a growing voice emphasizing that the unification should center around Candidate Kim."
If Candidate Han Dong-hoon becomes the final candidate, there may also be noise surrounding the leadership of unification with Prime Minister Han. Candidate Han maintains the stance that, "Even if a big tent is formed, it has to be centered around the party candidate."
In the final debate with Candidate Kim Moon-soo the previous day, Candidate Han pointed out that, "It was reported that Lee Nak-yon, former Democratic Party leader, demanded that the People Power Party 'change its party name' as a precondition for the big tent, and the leadership stated that 'it is possible to promise a name change after the election,' which is highly inappropriate."
He added, "It’s disheartening to see figures like former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon or Jeong Dae-cheol, the chairman of the Republic of Korea Constitutional Society (former Democratic Party member), make demands like changing the party's name or even expelling former President Yoon Seok-youl, which would make our 770,000 party members feel greatly humiliated."
In particular, the fact that the presidential candidate will have 'priority in party affairs' is expected to become a major variable. Priority in party affairs refers to granting the final presidential candidate decision-making authority over all party matters, as stipulated in Article 74 of the People Power Party's constitution. Transferring this authority to Prime Minister Han, who is running as an independent, is contingent upon the will of the final candidate from the People Power Party.
◇ Differences between factions signal a 'rocky road' to unification
With criticism directed at the old Democratic Party forces centered around Candidate Han Dong-hoon, building justification for unification with Lee Nak-yon, former advisor at the New Future Democratic Party who served as prime minister during the Moon Jae-in administration, is also critical. The advisor has formalized his candidacy for the early presidential election and stated that the People Power Party needs to clarify its stance on emergency martial law and impeachment before forming an alliance with Prime Minister Han.
On the 17th of last month, the advisor warned the People Power Party during a 'Constitutional Amendment Federation' national meeting, saying, "You must abandon the now-ousted President Yoon Seok-youl due to impeachment," adding, "It will be difficult to gain the public’s trust unless substantial reform to the level of dismantling the party is conducted." Jeon Byeong-heon, the leader of the New Future Democratic Party, stated to ChosunBiz, "Sincere resolution and apology regarding martial law and impeachment will be the key to forming solidarity."
Embracing figures with significant centrist appeal in the broad conservative camp is also a task. Lee Jun-seok, the candidate from the Reform Party, has stated, "I will not participate in any golden tent with those whose objectives do not align with mine," expressing intention to continue his campaign.
Former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min, who declared his withdrawal from the People Power Party primaries last month on the 13th, citing that "the party refuses to undergo genuine reflection and transformation," is reportedly still contemplating his future course of action.
The deadline for registering presidential candidates is May 11. There are ten days left for unification negotiations. For Prime Minister Han, it is optimal to realize unification before then to receive the number 2 designation from the People Power Party and secure the party's electoral funding.
If unification is not achieved by this deadline, each candidate will register individually, and it may become increasingly challenging to narrow the gap with candidate Lee Jae-myung.
However, there will still be last-minute opportunities for unification before the ballot printing date (May 25) or the early voting date (May 29).
In fact, just a day before the early voting date for the 2022 presidential election, candidate Yoon Seok-youl from the People Power Party and candidate Ahn Cheol-soo from the People's Party succeeded in a surprise unification under the banner of 'regime change.'