The final ruling on the violation of the public official election law case that will determine the political fate of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate, will be issued on the 1st of next month. Given the potential political consequences of the final ruling, the political world is paying close attention to its impact on the presidential election landscape.
According to the political circles on the 30th, the Democratic Party of Korea is expecting the dismissal of the appeal. They are citing two points: ▲ The court unusually set the appeal ruling date quickly, and ▲ it was scheduled before the presidential candidate registration date (May 10-11).
Park Soo-hyun, a senior deputy director of the party's central election campaign committee, noted on YTN Radio that "logically, the Supreme Court is unlikely to cause a significant upheaval in the early presidential election situation" and predicted that the acquittal ruling from the second trial will be upheld.
Park also stated, "The Supreme Court is unlikely to make significant changes such as reversing the ruling because they would be taking on substantial burdens, so I view the situation optimistically," adding that the scheduling of a hearing just nine days after referral to the full bench is unprecedented and suggests the court will not make substantial changes.
Additionally, he added, "The Supreme Court, being the highest authority, cannot ignore sensitive matters; it seems they feel a sense of responsibility and intend to address the situation in some form."
According to legal and political circles, there are about three possible conclusions that the Supreme Court could reach: ▲ Dismissal of the appeal resulting in confirmation of acquittal ▲ Reversal for a guilty verdict referral ▲ Reversal for a new trial.
If acquittal is confirmed, Lee Jae-myung will shed the judicial risk fully during the presidential election and solidify the narrative of 'Oh Dae-myung.'
A representative of the People Power Party commented, "If Lee's acquittal is confirmed in the final ruling, isn't that like 'the entire universe is helping Lee Jae-myung?"
On the other hand, the possibility of referral for a new trial is also mentioned. If the Supreme Court sends the case back to the Seoul High Court with a guilty intent, the issue surrounding Lee's 'qualifications as a presidential candidate' is expected to become the largest issue in the election phase.
Consequently, throughout the election period, there will likely be ongoing attacks from the conservative camp regarding the qualifications of the candidate. If, despite this, Lee is elected president, there will likely be continued debate over whether the trial for the election law case should be suspended or continue.
According to Article 84 of the Constitution, sitting presidents have immunity from prosecution, and whether this provision applies to existing trials is a matter of debate within academia.
Kim Yong-tae, a lawmaker from the People Power Party, appeared on KBS News the day before and said, "If it results in a referral for guilt, the impact will be significant," adding that "the debate over Article 84 of the Constitution will likely reignite."