The National Intelligence Service anticipated that Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, is unlikely to attend the 80th anniversary celebration of Russia's victory in World War II (May 9th, Victory Day) in person.
On the 30th, the National Intelligence Service reported this during a closed-door meeting of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee, as noted by Lee Seong-kwon of the People Power Party and Kim Byeong-ki of the Democratic Party of Korea during a briefing.
The National Intelligence Service stated to the National Assembly that "Kim Jong Un's discussions on visiting Russia are likely to resume from the beginning since they have reached a new turning point with the 'officialization of troop dispatch' (between North Korea and Russia)," but added that "there is a high possibility that Kim Jong Un will not participate directly in the Victory Day event and that an alternative official, such as Choe Ryong-hae, chairman of the Supreme People's Assembly, will attend."
The National Intelligence Service continued, stating, "If Kim Jong Un were to attend, security measures would need to be observed weeks in advance; however, it appears that is not the case, so the attending official is likely not Kim Jong Un."
The National Intelligence Service also analyzed the background of North Korea and Russia's officialization of troop dispatch to Ukraine, saying, "This is the result of a compromise between Kim Jong Un, who is looking to establish an alliance after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, and Putin, who needs a dramatic appearance of a holy war." It continued, stating that "North Korea is expected to demand aggressive countermeasures and assert its status as a formal belligerent, potentially leading to provocations with Russia's backing."
Regarding North Korea-U.S. relations, the National Intelligence Service remarked, "North Korea is expected to maintain constant pressure on the United States for a change in its stance under its most hardline response strategy," and added, "While specific contact trends have not been confirmed, it cannot be ruled out that North Korea is refraining from criticizing U.S. President Donald Trump, and President Trump is also sending conciliatory messages, which could lead to an unexpected North Korea-U.S. meeting."
The National Intelligence Service reported on North Korea-China relations, stating, "North Korea is attempting to improve relations with China in terms of 'risk hedging' in preparation for the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, but the continued 'North Korean taming' by China has left the situation stagnant."