The People Power Party's candidates for the 21st presidential election finals are ‘anti-impeachment’ candidate Kim Moon-soo and ‘pro-impeachment’ candidate Han Dong-hoon. The third round of the primary is expected to see intense competition over former President Yoon Suk-yeol's stance on martial law and impeachment, the ‘anti-Lee Jae-myung big tent’ plan with figures outside the party, and the main competition capability to defeat Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung.
◇ Party members and moderates chose a candidate with a clear position
The People Power Party confirmed candidates Kim Moon-soo and Han Dong-hoon (in alphabetical order) for the finals of the 21st presidential election on the 29th. This result reflects a ‘national poll’ (50%) targeting 6,000 People Power Party supporters and independents and a party member voter turnout of 390,000 (50%).
Political analysts suggest that the final results indicate a consolidation of demands from the strong conservative and moderate factions around the candidate who demonstrated ‘clarity’.
In particular, it is evaluated that Kim's shift towards a positive stance on the initially negative ‘Han Duck-soo unification’ from the early stages of the second primary had a significant effect.
As the candidate classified as an ‘anti-impeachment’ figure, Hong took an ambiguous position on unification with acting Han, which allowed Kim to seize that opportunity and attract support from party members and supporters demanding a ‘big tent’.
In contrast, candidate Han appears to have attracted ‘pro-impeachment’ sentiment, stating, “I led the efforts to prevent martial law,” while strongly expressing his stance throughout the second primary debate.
Political commentator Choi Soo-young analyzed, “Candidate Kim discussed unification with Acting Han from the beginning, benefiting from the ‘Han Duck-soo campaign effect,’ while candidate Han appealed for the clarity of his positions on martial law and impeachment and asked for a candidate with competitive potential in the main election.”
Political commentator Park Sang-byeong also noted, “Candidate Kim’s clarity through ‘Han Duck-soo unification’ reflected the demands of People Power Party members, which likely led to more votes at the end compared to candidate Hong.”
Regarding candidate Han, it was evaluated as an effort to support a ‘likely candidate’ based on perceived competitive potential for the main election.
Candidate Han commented on his ‘advance to the finals,’ stating, “I believe many people sympathized with the spirit of the times and the direction we are heading.”
◇ Final variables... Han Duck-soo unification and main election competitiveness
In the finals, the roadmap for establishing a ‘conservative big tent’ and the competitive capability for the main election are expected to be crucial.
There is a clear difference in the positions of the two candidates regarding unification with Acting Han.
Candidate Kim stated that if selected as the final candidate, he would respond immediately to unification negotiations based on the principle of “fairness and expediency.” However, he mentioned that the method of unification would be discussed with the party leadership.
Candidate Kim mentioned during a meeting with reporters after the second primary announcement, “There are proposals for two candidates, and there are also proposals for a three-candidate system with Acting Han joining. We will discuss this with the party.”
In contrast, candidate Han has been cautious about discussing the method of unification with Acting Han, insisting that he should focus on the internal party primary.
He stated, “After being confirmed as a candidate, I will find ways to gather strength in various directions. However, I do not agree with discussions about unification during the ongoing primary process.”
In particular, regarding the proposal for a ‘three-candidate final’ including Acting Han, he emphasized that it is “not realistic” and “any big tent should center around People Power Party candidates.”
The deadline for registering as the practical presidential candidate for choosing a single candidate from the conservative bloc, including Acting Han, is set for the 11th of next month. A member of candidate Kim's 'victory camp' stated, “Early May is tight due to holidays. However, considering practical procedures, we must conclude negotiations by the 9th at the latest, and we will immediately start discussions on the method of unification.”
The strategic choices of party members and supporters regarding which candidate has the competitive potential in the main election are also key factors. Concerning the ‘final strategy,’ candidate Kim mentioned, “It will be a competition of who can truly fight and win against Lee Jae-myung.”
Similar to the second primary, the two candidates are expected to highlight their differences on their positions regarding martial law and impeachment.
Candidate Kim criticized candidate Han during a one-on-one debate held on the 24th, pointing out the unstable relationship between the party and the government and launching an offensive based on ‘martial law responsibility.’
In contrast, candidate Han responded, “Many politicians also bear responsibility.” Candidate Kim's past extreme right behaviors, including his relationship with pastor Jeong Kwang-hoon of Sarang Jeil Church, are also expected to be mentioned again.
There are mixed forecasts regarding who will emerge as the final candidate.
Analyst Park noted, “(The party's mainstream) sees the presidential election as inherently difficult and is calculating how to seize party power,” predicting that candidate Kim, who promised unification with Acting Han, will receive proactive support from the party's mainstream and actively gain their support.
On the other hand, political commentator Hwang Tae-soon stated, “Candidate Kim reaching the finals is considered an acceptance of so-called requests from the party's mainstream,” while also noting, “People will have to consider who can actually face off against candidate Lee Jae-myung, especially if it includes Acting Han, as there are doubts about Acting Han's competitive capacity.”