Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea's presidential candidate, was decisively chosen as the final candidate for the main election during the national tour primary on the 27th. This marks his third challenge for the presidency following the 19th and 20th elections. After entering politics as the mayor of Seongnam in 2010, he entered the National Assembly through the by-election in 2022 and progressively consolidated control over party members and the assembly. This is the background for him becoming the all-powerful presidential candidate of the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party selected Lee as its presidential candidate following the 'joint speech event for the selection of the 21st presidential candidates' held that day at KINTEX in Goyang, Gyeonggi Province. His voting rate among party rights members and national delegates was 90.32%, surpassing Kim Kyeong-soo (3.69%) and Kim Dong-yeon (5.98%) across the regions of Chungcheong, Yeongnam, Honam, the capital area, Gangwon, and Jeju. The total combined voting rate, which also reflects public opinion survey results, is 89.77%.
◇Changing the party constitution and implementing factional nominations
After losing to former President Yoon Suk-yeol in the 20th presidential election, Lee won a seat in the National Assembly representing Incheon Gyeyang in a by-election later that year. He pushed for control within the party based on strong support from party members who had joined around the time of the election. Despite increasing his visibility with representative policies like universal basic income while serving as the mayor of Seongnam and the governor of Gyeonggi Province, his lack of experience in the National Assembly hindered his presidential run.
A typical case is the 'amendment of the party constitution' and 'factionalism.' Lee was elected as the leader of the Democratic Party just two months after entering the National Assembly through the by-election in June 2022. He and the pro-Lee faction passed an amendment to strengthen the proportion of party rights members' votes from '1/60th of delegates' to '1/20th' in December the following year. They also passed a measure to increase the reduction ratio for members evaluated in the bottom 10% from 20% to 30%.
At that time, the conflict between the pro-Lee faction and the anti-Lee faction peaked due to the amendment of the party constitution. Critics within the anti-Lee faction argued that Lee was cultivating a strong support base to create a 'Lee Jae-myung monopoly' system. Former lawmakers Hong Young-pyo and Park Yong-jin clashed with Lee, stating that he was 'damaging the spirit of the Democratic Party.'
The nominations for the 2024 general election were utilized as a powerful tool to strengthen Lee's control over the party. Many current lawmakers classified as anti-Lee, including former floor leader Park Kwang-on, fell into the 'lower ranks.' They were unable to surpass the reduction ratios changed by the pro-Lee faction and were eliminated from the nominations one after another. Instead, associates claiming allegiance to 'pro-Lee' defeated incumbent lawmakers to secure their candidacies.
◇Overwhelming victory in the primaries... The party focuses on the 'three trials of election law'
Lee achieved a landslide victory in the primaries, thanks to the support of party members and assembly members. The change in the primary rules to a '50% party members and 50% public opinion survey' format cannot be ignored. Lee garnered votes of ▲88.15% in Chungcheong ▲90.81% in Yeongnam ▲88.69% in Honam ▲91.54% in the capital area, Gangwon, and Jeju. The voting rate from the public election committee based on opinion surveys is 89.21%.
The remaining variable is Lee's trial for violating the election law. Previously, the Supreme Court referred Lee's election law violation case to the en banc committee on the 22nd and immediately held two court sessions. Legal experts believe that the Supreme Court may issue a ruling before the candidate registration period for the presidential election on the 10th to 11th of next month. Within the party, meetings of pro-Lee lawmakers are being held regarding the 'three trials,' and lawmakers from the Legislative and Judiciary Committee have released statements, heightening anxiety.
After the joint speech event that day, Lee did not give a direct answer to the question, 'How do you view the concern that an overwhelming voting rate could negatively impact support from moderate voters in the main election?' However, he noted, 'Some people say that a high voting rate is too much, while others see it as natural,' adding, 'For me, overwhelming support means overwhelming expectations and overwhelming responsibility. The weight of responsibility feels even heavier.'