The Democratic Party of Korea confirmed former representative Lee Jae-myung as the candidate for the 21st presidential election on the 27th, making the early 6.3 presidential election landscape a battle of 'Lee Jae-myung or not.' Regardless of who becomes the candidate for the People Power Party, building a 'anti-Lee Jae-myung front' against the front-runner Lee is inevitable. Lee needs to expand his overwhelming support within the party to the moderate base. Bringing in the 0.7 percentage point voter sentiment that decided the outcome of the last election is a core task. Concerns about monopolizing legislative, administrative, and judicial powers must also be overcome.
◇The presidential election landscape without progressive parties… Lee 'more' rightward
The outcome of the main election depends on ‘moderate voter sentiment.’ This is because minor parties in the progressive camp have disappeared from the election landscape. The Rebuilding Korea Party decided not to run a presidential candidate after a vote of all party members on the 17th. The former front-runner, former representative Cho Kuk, was imprisoned, and it was deemed difficult to secure funds for the election. The Social Democratic Party and the Basic Income Party also appear unlikely to run candidates. Only the Progressive Party has confirmed a candidate but left room for unification with the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party no longer needs to compete for progressive identity. From Lee's perspective, the opposition support base has effectively become a 'secured vote.' The ruling party's rightward shift is also a major cause. Unless the People Power Party distances itself from former President Yoon Suk-yeol, the conservative-leaning moderate base is likely to drift. Lee's 'declaration of moderate conservatism' is a result of this judgment.
As of this day, the People Power Party's second primary consists of four candidates. The candidates are Ahn Cheol-soo and Han Dong-hoon, classified as supporters of impeachment, and Kim Moon-soo and Hong Joon-pyo, classified as opponents, creating a '2-to-2' situation. It is widely believed that moderate public sentiment requires a distance from martial law and impeachment. Regardless of which candidate advances to the main election, they will compete for moderate voter sentiment.
Lee has recently proposed various tax cuts, including inheritance tax and earned income tax reforms, as well as corporate tax reductions. He targeted a group that is sensitive to tax issues but does not have a strong political color. In fact, he identified 'the majority of the middle class in the metropolitan area' as the beneficiaries when he brought up inheritance tax reform last February.
◇Differentiating from the Moon administration, pulling moderates with real estate
Political circles are paying attention to Lee's real estate policy. The Democratic Party views the reason for their loss in the last presidential election, which was by a margin of 0.7 percentage points, as the 'failure of the Moon Jae-in administration's real estate policy.' The 14 districts in Seoul where Lee lost include major areas in the so-called 'Han River belt' such as Mapo, Yeongdeungpo, Dongjak, Seongdong, Gwangjin, and Gangdong.
Lee, who has gained the upper hand in the presidential race, is focusing on expanding supply and improving the residential environment. He aims to differentiate himself from the Moon Jae-in administration’s real estate policy by taking a rightward approach. Lee Jae-myung's supply policy is divided into proactive supply through the development of the fourth new towns and the expansion of public housing through the revitalization of reconstruction and redevelopment.
◇With 170 seats in the National Assembly and administrative power... 'Lee phobia' as a variable to resolve
No candidates for the People Power Party have emerged that are on par with Lee in opinion polls so far. This shows that the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' sentiment among the public is strong. With the Democratic Party holding a majority with 170 seats in the National Assembly and wielding administrative power, there are concerns that they might also seek to appoint two constitutional court judges nominated by the president, extending their influence into the judicial realm. Political consultant Park Sung-min said, 'The Democratic Party should focus on strategies to reduce anti-Lee Jae-myung sentiment rather than strategies to weaken the People Power Party,' and added, 'dispel this phobia in the main election will be a key election strategy for the Democratic Party.'
On that day, the Democratic Party confirmed Lee as the final presidential candidate after a primary held at the KINTEX in Ilsan, Gyeonggi Province, for the capital region, Gangwon, and Jeju. According to special party regulations, the votes of party members, delegates, and overseas citizens accounted for 50%, while the public poll-based voting by national voters also accounted for 50%. The vote count revealed that Lee received a total of 89.77% of the votes. Candidates Kim Dong-yeon and Kim Kyeong-soo received 6.87% and 3.36% of the votes, respectively. The total voter turnout for party members, delegates, and overseas citizens was 60.47%.