In the first primary election for the People Power Party's 21st presidential candidate, four candidates were confirmed for the primary race, and the second primary battle over the main ticket is expected to show a clear competitive landscape regarding the position on the impeachment of former President Yoon Seok-youl.
◇ "Move public opinion toward a candidate who can defeat Lee Jae-myung"
The People Power Party announced on the 22nd that it has confirmed four candidates: Kim Moon-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo, Han Dong-hoon, and Hong Joon-pyo (in alphabetical order) to advance to the second primary election.
This is the result of adopting the '100% national opinion poll' method targeting the supporters of the People Power Party and the undecided voters.
Ahn Cheol-soo and Han Dong-hoon, classified as supporters of impeachment (Chantan), and Kim Moon-soo and Hong Joon-pyo, opponents of impeachment (Bantan), will each join the second preliminary rounds in a 2 to 2 structure.
Initially, there were expectations that Na Kyung-won, a representative of the anti-impeachment faction, would join the top four, propelled by conservative supporters, but the outcome was different.
In political circles, there are analyses suggesting that the results of this cutoff reflected the public sentiment of the centrist voters more than that of the strong conservative faction.
Political commentator Choi Soo-young said, "Supporters who participated in the survey may have strategically supported Ahn's candidacy, signaling that the party needs to distance itself from martial law and impeachment and change."
Park Sung-min, a political consulting representative, noted, "As Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea appears likely to become president, public opinion is shifting towards identifying who is 'someone who can win against Lee Jae-myung' rather than 'a candidate who can be trusted.'"
Ahn also expressed after reaching the top four, "I believe it reflects the expectations and hopes of the public that we must win in this presidential election."
◇ Is the 'anti-impeachment faction' benefiting from Ahn's effect? Where do the strong supporters stand?
Opinions are divided on whether Ahn's advancement to the second preliminary election will shake up the current landscape.
If Na Kyung-won had advanced, votes from the anti-impeachment faction would have been dispersed, but some believe Ahn's entry may split the votes of the pro-impeachment faction. If Ahn Cheol-soo and Han Dong-hoon compete for the center-right votes, it's predicted that Kim Moon-soo and Hong Joon-pyo, the anti-impeachment candidates, could benefit.
There is also a perspective that Ahn may struggle to surpass the support level of Han's supporters and that a competitive structure between pro-impeachment Han Dong-hoon and anti-impeachment Hong Joon-pyo may emerge.
Political commentator Park Sang-byeong stated, "Han is gaining momentum as a figure who has effectively led reforms with the identity of the People Power Party, while Hong, who has rich political experience, is likely to show strong support. Kim may find it hard to attract centrist support."
Starting from the second preliminary election, 50% of the votes will be based on national opinion polls and 50% will be based on a panel of voters. There is a possibility that the influence of the strong conservative faction may be involved more than in the first preliminary election. Accordingly, how candidates’ strategies will differ will be a key point to watch.
Han has repeatedly defined martial law as illegal and has expressed that he has no regrets about supporting impeachment. In contrast, Kim has strongly criticized impeachment itself as not being in the national interest, labeling the Constitutional Court's impeachment ruling as a 'hasty, political, and opinion trial.'
Hong maintains that both martial law and impeachment were wrong, but argues that those who led the division within the party, including Han who supports impeachment, bear the responsibility. Ahn, classified as a supporter of impeachment, emphasized the orderly resignation of former President Yoon but has recently shifted to a more hardline stance, urging for a withdrawal from the party.