Last year, the population that moved to Seoul for the purposes of further education, academic pursuits, and children's education recorded the highest number since statistics began tracking this data. Although Seoul has experienced a net outflow of population since 1990 and the school-age population is decreasing, the influx of people to Seoul for educational reasons continues to show a steady increase.
According to the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) on the 19th, the population that moved to Seoul last year was counted at 1,221,380. During the same period, the population that left Seoul was 1,266,072, resulting in a net outflow of 44,692.
Notably, the population that relocated to Seoul for educational purposes reached 95,209, the highest recorded since statistics were compiled. The trend, which had slowed down briefly due to COVID-19, is showing signs of acceleration again.
According to the statistics agency, the population that moved to Seoul for educational purposes steadily increased from 68,000 in 2013 to 73,000 in 2017, and then to 88,000 in 2020. It decreased to 76,000 during the peak of COVID-19 in 2021 but increased again to 82,000 in 2022 and 91,000 in 2023, setting a record high. Last year, it increased to 95,000, marking the highest record for two consecutive years.
By district, Gangnam, known as the 'cradle of private education', saw the highest number of relocations. Following Gangnam were Gwanak (7,725), Seongbuk (7,632), Dongdaemun (6,980), and Nowon (6,540) as districts with high numbers of populations moving for educational reasons.
The population relocating to Gangnam for educational purposes recorded the highest number ever. From 2013 to 2018, the number remained in the range of 5,000 to 6,000, but surpassed 7,000 in 2019 and then declined to the 6,000 range in 2022. However, it exceeded 9,000 in 2023 and reached 9,191 last year, setting a new record.
The increase in the population moving to Seoul for educational purposes is attributed to the 'private education frenzy'. According to the statistics agency, the total amount spent on private education for primary, middle, and high school students last year was 29.2 trillion won, marking the highest amount for four consecutive years. Last year, the school-age population decreased by 80,000 compared to the previous year due to low birth rates, while spending on private education increased by 21 trillion won.
When examining by region, the expenditure on private education in Seoul was overwhelmingly high compared to other regions. Last year, the average monthly expenditure on private education per student was 673,000 won, significantly outpacing other metropolitan cities (461,000 won), small and medium-sized cities (465,000 won), and rural areas (332,000 won). The participation rate in private education was also the highest in Seoul, with a participation rate of 86.1% for Seoul students, far exceeding the national average of 80%.
Additionally, the trend of high school students preferring universities in Seoul has been identified as a factor contributing to the increase in the population relocating for educational purposes. An official from the statistics agency noted, 'The population moving for educational purposes is largely in their 20s,' and added that 'the influx of people into regions densely populated with universities, such as Gwanak, Seongbuk, Dongdaemun, and Nowon, is noticeable.'
As the school-age population continues to decline, the phenomenon of avoiding local universities coincides with many young individuals relocating to Seoul for educational purposes. Even though the quota for universities in Seoul has not significantly decreased, it is absorbing individuals who would have historically enrolled in local universities, worsening the concentration phenomenon in the metropolitan area.
A researcher at the Yeondukwon University Education Research Institute analyzed, 'Since 2021, the population of eligible students (age 18) has begun to fall below the admissions quota.' They added that 'while the reduction rate of admissions quotas for local universities and colleges is higher than that of metropolitan area universities, their fill rates are lower.' Previously, the National Assembly Budget Office also analyzed that 'the biggest reason for the outflow of the population from non-metropolitan areas is the net movement of the youth to the metropolitan area.'
Experts warn that if the concentration of private education in Seoul continues, the social imbalance is likely to worsen. This not only leads to rising housing prices and increased loans in Gangnam but may also exacerbate low birth rate issues as young people settled in Seoul postpone marriage.
Lee Chang-yong, the governor of the Bank of Korea, pointed out in an interview with the Financial Times in September last year that 'the fervor for education centered on Gangnam leads to rising housing prices and increased loans, deepening inequality and accelerating population decline in local areas.' He emphasized that 'intense competition harms the economy and makes everyone unhappy.'
Cho Young-tae, head of the Population Policy Research Center at Seoul National University, projected, 'Currently, the number of elementary school entrants is in the 400,000 range, but by 2027, it will decrease to around 200,000.' He added, 'In local areas, the declining school-age population will inevitably contract the private education market, making the concentration of private education in Seoul even more pronounced.'
He continued, 'While the overall population of those in their 20s is decreasing, it is a problem that the population moving to Seoul in their 20s is actually increasing.' He noted, 'If the concentration of youth in Seoul becomes even higher, the likelihood of exacerbating low birth rate issues due to housing problems is significant.'