The cryptocurrency-based world's largest betting platform 'Polymarket' is pointing to Lee Jae-myung, the former representative of the Democratic Party, as the next president of South Korea.
This platform correctly predicted the likelihood of Donald Trump's election last year at 60-66%, which was considered more accurate than polls predicting a close race or a slight victory for Kamala Harris.
Because it's not simply a popularity contest, but rather a place where participants bet money on predictions, some view it as a gauge for possible direction.
On the 16th, when entering 'Who will be the next president of South Korea?' on Polymarket, the probability of the former representative winning appears to be the highest at 75%.
Compared to the 80% it exceeded right after the impeachment ruling of former President Yoon Suk-yeol on April 5, the figure has somewhat decreased. It is interpreted that the recent emergence of the people Power Party's presidential competitors has influenced this.
Former Gyeongsangnam-do Governor Kim Kyeong-soo and Gyeonggi-do Governor Kim Dong-yeon are in the pool of candidates, each with a probability in the 1% range.
In the broader conservative camp, including candidates from the people Power Party presidential primary, former Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo (7%), reform party candidate Lee Jun-seok (5%), former representative Han Dong-hoon (4%), former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo (4%), Lawmaker Na Kyung-won (3%), and Lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo (3%) follow.
Although he did not participate in the people Power Party presidential primary, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who is projected to run as an independent, has also emerged as a potential candidate with around a 3% probability.
However, even if the probabilities of the broader conservative camp, including Acting Prime Minister Han, are combined, they still only reach about one-third of the former representative's winning possibility.
Recently, to curb the former representative's solo run, candidates in the people Power Party have successively embraced third-party candidates in what is called a 'big tent strategy.'
Former Mayor Hong stated, "I believe that not only the reform party but also the anti-Lee Jae-myung forces in the Democratic Party should join together to stop the former representative."
Lawmaker Na Kyung-won also said, "If we care about the future of our Republic of Korea, we need to imagine and make many decisions. Sometimes, we need to make a decision."
Meanwhile, the potential of Yoo Seong-min, a former lawmaker predicted to join the big tent, along with former Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Du-kwan and former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon, who are classified as anti-Lee Jae-myung, is estimated at around 1%.