The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) predicted that South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will be 1.6% this year and 1.9% next year.
AMRO noted this in its report titled "2025 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)" released on the 15th. This growth rate forecast for South Korea is the same as the figure disclosed in the AMRO Korea Annual Consultation Report published on the 21st of last month.
AMRO analyzed that the overall ASEAN+3 region will maintain a stable growth trend of 4.2% this year and 4.1% next year, driven by the recovery of semiconductor exports and an expansion in tourism demand. This assessment is based on the judgment that robust private consumption and investment will support the growth trend.
In terms of inflation rate forecasts, it presented South Korea's consumer price inflation rate at 1.9% this year. This is similar to the estimated rate of 1.7% for the entire ASEAN+3 region.
However, AMRO pointed out that uncertainties in the external environment remain. The report warned that "downward risks to the outlook are still prevalent" and that the strengthening of protectionist policies in the U.S. could impose burdens on regional trade and growth. Additionally, the ongoing global currency tightening trend, economic slowdowns in major countries, and surges in raw material prices were also identified as short-term downward risks. Long-term structural challenges mentioned include population aging, climate change, and shocks from technological changes.
To address these uncertainties, AMRO emphasized that countries should maintain short-term economic responsiveness in their fiscal policy operations while also securing fiscal capacity in the medium to long term. Furthermore, it recommended that monetary policy should be adjusted in speed and intensity according to each country's situation, while considering financial stability and foreign exchange market stability comprehensively.