On June 4th, there are two main points to watch in the early presidential election triggered by the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. First, will the ruling party, whose support base has diminished around 'far-right forces' since the emergency martial law on December 3, present a candidate with competitive strength in the main election? Second, will the centrist conservatives, now directionless, lean towards Representative Lee Jae-myung, who received a not guilty verdict in the second trial? This means that the centrist votes will determine the outcome of the election in a two-polar structure where minor party candidates have disappeared.
◇Early presidential election must conclude primaries within three weeks
According to the Public Official Election Act, the early presidential election must be held within 60 days following the impeachment of the president. Acting President Han Duck-soo must announce the election date within 10 days from the Constitutional Court's ruling on this day. The election date will fall between May 24 and June 3. The 19th presidential election, held after former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment, took place 60 days after the Constitutional Court's ruling. By applying this, the early presidential election would take place on Tuesday, June 3.
In this case, each party must register their presidential candidates with the National Election Commission between May 10 and 11 after going through primaries. The official campaign starts on May 12. Within three weeks after the registration of preliminary candidates, they must finalize the recruitment of voters, TV debates, and regional primaries. There are suggestions within the Democratic Party to shorten even this to about two weeks. The People Power Party also has many views favoring a reduction in the primary period, considering negotiations over primary rules.
◇Ruling party, expansion or unity… 'maximum mourning period'
However, the early presidential election may remain a 'taboo' for the People Power Party, the party of the former president, Yoon. This is because the hardline supporters need time to accept the impeachment. A key figure in the party leadership noted, 'We need to prolong this so-called mourning period as much as possible.' This indicates that the supporters are strongly united around President Yoon. Such an atmosphere may reflect in the primaries.
According to the People Power Party's constitution and regulations, the presidential primary is determined by 50% member votes and 50% public opinion polls. Under the current primary rules, the targets for public opinion polls are the People Power Party's supporters and undecided voters. Some candidates, including former representative Han Dong-hoon, may demand a revision of the rules to reflect a higher ratio of the general public. However, considering agreements among candidates, the general consensus is that there is a lack of physical time.
The key issue is which side, supporters or opponents of the impeachment, will become the presidential candidate. The People Power Party is evaluated as having relied on hardline supporters during the emergency martial law and the impeachment situation. The party's leadership, including the emergency committee chair Kweon Seong-dong and floor leader Kwon Young-se, has visited the president in prison as 'private citizens' and even met the president a day after his release without attaching the 'private capacity' clause. This was essentially an official action representing the party. Comments from the spokesperson included the term 'fraudulent impeachment.'
After the impeachment of President Yoon, the consolidation of hardline conservatives is likely to become even more pronounced. Therefore, the party members may focus their support on figures such as Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo or Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, who have openly mentioned the dismissal of the impeachment.
Political consultant Park Seong-min stated, 'Right now, it's not an election that can be won by consolidating hardline supporters' and emphasized that 'the key is whether the People Power Party can select a candidate who can attract centrist voters and even some of the pro-democracy forces opposed to Lee Jae-myung.' He added, 'Given the nature of this election, it is uncertain whether the ruling party will make such a choice, but it is necessary to nominate a candidate that leans toward centrist expansion.'
Political commentator Choi Soo-young remarked, 'If the political factions divide into extremes and the situation of “Yoon Suk-yeol vs. Lee Jae-myung” re-establishes, it is conceivable that the People Power Party would nominate someone like Minister Kim Moon-soo (an anti-impeachment figure) as their presidential candidate.' He assessed that should this occur, the likelihood of defeat would be high, and the party may shrink into a 'Yeongnam minor party.'
◇The presidential race without progressive parties… Lee 'moving further to the right'
The Democratic Party is expected to speed up its 'Lee Jae-myung style rightward shift.' First of all, there is a high likelihood that minor progressive parties will not be able to present candidates due to the electoral dynamics. Progressive candidates have vanished, especially with the arrest of former Justice Party leader Cho Kuk, and the Democratic Party no longer needs to compete with progressive identities. For Representative Lee, this means that the opposition's support base has effectively become secured votes.
The ruling party's rightward shift is also a major factor. It is believed that the People Power Party cannot attract the centrist voters outside of the so-called 'asphalt far-right.' Lee's 'centrist conservative declaration' aligns with this judgment.
This is why Representative Lee has recently proposed easing inheritance tax and earned income tax, as well as corporate tax reductions. He aimed to target groups that are sensitive to tax issues yet relatively less politically colored. Poll results have shown that these groups have distanced themselves from the People Power Party since the emergency martial law, leading to efforts to attract centrist voters.
In fact, Representative Lee pointed to a 'majority of middle-class in the metropolitan area' as the beneficiaries when he raised the issue of inheritance tax reform in February. This strategy aims to reclaim regions where public sentiment deteriorated during the Moon Jae-in administration. Representative Lee lost the last presidential election by a narrow margin of 0.7 percentage points and analyzed the primary cause as the 'failure of the Moon Jae-in administration's real estate policy.' Notably, the 14 districts in which he lost included areas like Mapo, Yeongdeungpo, Dongjak, Seongdong, Gwangjin, and Gangdong, which are all part of the 'Han River belt.'
Political commentator Lee Jong-geun stated, 'For Representative Lee Jae-myung, who has essentially no competitors within the opposition parties, the only option left is to push further to the right.' He added, 'Sensitivities will be considered for now, regarding the traditional supporter base and progressive identity, but once the presidential race begins, it becomes a battle over who can attract centrist conservatives. He will strategically showcase traits akin to a thoroughly conservative politician.'
◇'Is it Lee Jae-myung or not'… resolving Lee phobia is a variable
Ultimately, this presidential election is regarded as one that determines 'whether it is Lee Jae-myung or not,' according to the general consensus in the political arena. Currently, there is no candidate matching Representative Lee in a one-on-one scenario in opinion polls. This reflects the deep fear among the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' forces. There are concerns that a party with a majority of 170 seats in the National Assembly would monopolize administrative powers. The Democratic Party is expected to accelerate its policy competition, focusing on centrist conservatives, by introducing various tax cuts. This is to address the so-called 'Lee Jae-myung phobia.'
Consultant Park Seong-min noted, 'The moment Representative Lee was acquitted in the appeals trial, competition effectively ceased,’ adding that the focus will be on strategies to reduce anti-Lee Jae-myung sentiments rather than weakening the People Power Party. He continued, 'With an overwhelming number of seats and administrative power, and even appointing two constitutional court justices, there is concern that the party will encroach on judicial powers,' stating that 'to secure maneuvering space in the local elections in 2026, it will be vital to dispel this phobia as a key electoral strategy.'