The political landscape is shaking due to the martial law incident that occurred on Dec. 3 last year and the subsequent impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol. In particular, there is a growing movement within the political circles to prepare for a possible 'early presidential election.' This is because if the impeachment motion against the imprisoned President Yoon is accepted, a new president must be elected within 60 days. So, who will be the next presidential candidate? Various figures are being mentioned as candidates in the ruling party, which does not have a clear frontrunner. There are also individuals from the opposition party, whose support rates are overwhelmingly led by Representative Lee Jae-myung, being discussed as alternatives. Can they really seize the ticket to become presidential candidates? [Editor’s note]
On Dec. 7 last year, when the first impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol was brought to the National Assembly plenary session, a photo featuring a scene of lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo sitting alone was highlighted as a headline on the U.S. CNN website. As all members of the People Power Party exited the plenary chamber, he sat alone. Later, in an interview with the British BBC, he expressed his intention to support the impeachment, stating, "Members of Congress have the right and duty to vote according to their beliefs."
While it was seen as a significant photo by foreign media, Ahn's solitary image seemingly illustrated his position within the party. Despite forming an alliance with the then-presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party ahead of the 2022 presidential election, Ahn’s relationship with the president has deteriorated following tensions during the transition team period, distancing him from pro-Yoon factions. However, he has not played a notable centripetal role in the anti-Yoon faction either. His weakness of 'not being able to cultivate his own supporters' has particularly stood out.
Ahn occupies a unique position in our political history. In 2011 and 2012, he created the 'Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon' by yielding the candidacy for the Seoul mayor and the unified candidate for the opposition's presidential election. Although he started from the Democratic Party, which has democratic and progressive inclinations, he has traversed through the centrist People's Party and the Bareunmirae Party and is now engaged with the conservative People Power Party.
Such a 'broad spectrum' has functioned more as a weakness than a strength in practical politics. During his political career, he has repeatedly founded and left parties, earning the derisive nickname 'Gan Cheol-soo' (Ahn watching carefully). Nevertheless, it remains unchanged that Ahn is a prospective contender for the next presidential election. With advantages of being rational and reasonable, can he build a distinct following and finally win the presidency this time?
◇'Rationality, common sense, principle' plus competency... Target of the opposition party
Since the martial law incident on Dec. 3, political circles have assessed Ahn as an alternative to moderate conservatives armored with 'rationality, common sense, and principle.' This assessment stems from the belief that actions drawing a line against far-right forces could help secure votes from the moderate electorate. In fact, once the impeachment motion against President Yoon cleared the threshold of the National Assembly plenary session, his name was unambiguously included in the list of next presidential candidates in opinion polls.
Political commentator Lee Kang-yun noted in a call with ChosunBiz that "if viewed through the lens of the martial law and impeachment phase, Ahn has maintained his beliefs relatively clearly and consistently," adding that "he was uniquely different among the members of the People Power Party."
He remarked, "The image formed during that time was that of a legislator trying not to stray from the people's expectations," emphasizing that he created a positive image in the minds of voters who value conservatism, rationality, common sense, and principle.
In the opposition, Ahn is often cited as the most concerning figure when competing against Representative Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party. An official from the Democratic Party stated, "Many believe it would be difficult to compete against individuals from the ruling party who have presented rational opinions rather than those who defend the state of emergency or align with far-right forces."
Another strong point is 'competency.' He is a doctor and the founder of the information technology (IT) corporation AhnLab. He has also served as the head of the medical school department and the dean of the Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology at Seoul National University. There are still expectations that his versatility as a successful physician and entrepreneur will be demonstrated in politics.
He himself knows that competency is the best weapon. He has consistently emphasized the need for new figures rather than existing politicians. Although he has not formally declared his candidacy for president, he stated, "We must do our best to solve issues such as the medical emergency and creating future opportunities in the AI era. A lawyer is not what we need, but a physician and IT expert is essential," expressing his image as a competent politician.
◇ Highlighting presidential contender qualities with 'constitutional amendment card'... No faction within the party
Recently, he has been proactively calling for constitutional amendments to change the political landscape. He suggested a meeting with Representative Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party to discuss constitutional amendment discussions aimed at introducing a decentralized presidential system. This reflects an early attempt to distinguish himself as a presidential contender.
Ahn held a press conference on the 3rd, stating, "We need to 'rebuild' the Republic of Korea, which is in total crisis," and proposed holding a national referendum for constitutional amendments along with the upcoming local elections in 2026.
If Ahn runs in the early presidential election, he will be making his first challenge from within the ruling party, not from a third zone. However, the complete lack of influence within the party poses a significant hurdle for him. Particularly, his short history and weak legitimacy in the conservative party suggest that it won't be easy to overcome the internal primary.
Not having any 'allies' within the party is also a limitation. Even fellow lawmakers have said that "it is hard to point out a friendly lawmaker." While considering the option of founding another party could be viable, the early presidential election may occur as soon as two months from now, leaving little time to act.
In fact, there are virtually no figures that could be classified as 'pro-Ahn.' Former lawmaker Kim Tae-seob, who entered politics as the head of Ahn's camp during the 18th presidential election, and former emergency response chair Kim Jong-in, who supported Ahn during the 19th presidential election, have both left his side. Former lawmaker Kim reportedly has not contacted Ahn in over ten years.
A political insider commented, "I’m not sure why people around him can’t stick around, but it clearly seems difficult for him to form a faction."
Overcoming the perception of 'Ahn leaving at crucial moments (Ahn Cheol-soo resigning at critical points)' is also a task he must address. This phrase emerged as people who once pinned their hopes on Ahn departed after he made poor decisions at critical moments.
In the political world, advice has been given that 'confidence' and 'inclusiveness' are needed to compensate for Ahn's shortcomings. Professor Lee Jun-han from the University of Incheon stated, "Ahn has an image of being weak and lacking leadership to lead or embrace others. He should confidently demonstrate the ability to bring people together rather than simply projecting a loud and strong image."