Market research firm Counterpoint Research downgraded the global smartphone shipment growth forecast for this year from 4.2% to 1.9% on the 4th (local time), as market uncertainty has increased due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy. The smartphone shipment forecasts for Samsung Electronics and Apple have also been revised downward.
After President Trump announced in April that he would impose 'reciprocal tariffs' on imported goods from around the world, he designated smartphones and some electronic products as exceptions a few days later. On the 23rd of last month, he suddenly announced a plan to impose tariffs of at least 25% on 'smartphones produced overseas.'
As a result, Counterpoint lowered its forecast for iPhone shipment growth this year from 4% to 2.5%, while the forecast for Samsung Electronics' smartphone growth was revised down from an increase of 1.7% to stagnation with no growth. However, Apple projected that the shipment volume would increase compared to last year due to the popularity of the iPhone 16 series and the rising demand for high-end models in emerging markets.
Ease Lee, Deputy Director of Counterpoint, noted, 'Both Apple and Samsung have a significant exposure to the U.S. market, so tariffs have had some impact on the adjustment of growth rates,' adding that 'the weakening demand in regions not only in North America but also in parts of Europe and Asia was also reflected.'
Counterpoint also projected that, despite the overall downward trend, China's Huawei is expected to see an 11% increase in shipments this year compared to the previous year. It is anticipated that supply bottlenecks for key Huawei components will ease by the end of this year, allowing Huawei to secure a significant market share in the mid-to-low price segment in China.