NCSOFT aims to achieve annual sales of 2.5 trillion won next year with the MMORPG (massively multiplayer online role-playing game) new title 'Aion 2.' Aion 2, a sequel to 'Aion,' which is regarded as the company's main IP (intellectual property) alongside 'Lineage,' is scheduled for release in the fourth quarter, and the market is mixed with expectations and concerns.
◇ Expectations for 'Aion 2' lead to a 9% increase in stock price
According to the gaming industry on the 2nd, NCSOFT (hereinafter referred to as NCS) plans to launch Aion 2 in the fourth quarter of this year in a cross-platform format covering both PC and mobile. The PC version will be introduced first, followed by a mobile adaptation. The strategy aims to expand its reach not only in the domestic market but also in overseas markets using various platforms.
NCSOFT stated that Aion 2 is a work that maintains the original world view and class system while completely redesigning the combat method and content structure. It has enhanced immersion by introducing a manual control-based system, excluding automatic combat, and strengthened features like large open fields and customization. The company hopes to evoke nostalgia among existing fans while attracting new users.
On the 29th of last month, NCS revealed the game's direction and core content through a live broadcast on YouTube, featuring major figures like Baek Seung-wook, the Chief Business Officer (CBO), and announced a private test this month.
However, stock prices fell immediately after the content reveal of Aion 2 on the 30th of last month. The stock closed at 152,500 won, down 4.03% from the previous trading day, and at one point fell below the 150,000 won mark. Analysts noted that the disappointment reflected in the market was due to 'the disclosed information not meeting expectations.'
However, after the weekend, the market sentiment reversed within two days. On the 2nd, NCS's stock price rose 9.05% to 166,300 won compared to the previous trading day. This was due to a reassessment of information regarding Aion 2, leading to renewed expectations.
In the market, there are mixed expectations that NCS will rebound its performance and stock price in the latter half of this year, centered around Aion 2, while concerns about stagnation remain.
Currently, major securities firms have set a target stock price for NCS between 200,000 won and 300,000 won. Yuanta Securities Korea stated that 'Aion 2 inherits the world view of its predecessor while avoiding excessive monetization and targets all user groups with graphics based on Unreal Engine 5 and various combat systems,' suggesting a target price of 310,000 won. Lee Chang-young, a researcher at Yuanta Securities Korea, explained, 'Aion is a highly loyal IP that once recorded the number one market share in domestic PC cafes for 160 consecutive weeks, indicating that there is a waiting demand among consumers in their 30s and 40s.'
Kim Jin-goo, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, noted that 'NCS's unusually detailed revenue guidance for the upcoming year demonstrates their internal confidence in Aion 2,' and added, 'It is being developed as a high-quality game that aligns with global user demand, focusing on large-screen environments based on Steam and PvE content (battles with monsters or dungeons).'
◇ 'Expectations that Aion 2 will yield different results seem difficult'
The launch of NCS's Aion 2 coincides with the trend of mobile reinterpretation of popular IPs that is spreading throughout the gaming industry. Nexon proved its success by placing 'Mabinogi Mobile' in the top ranks for both popularity and revenue immediately after its release, and Smilegate is also preparing for the official launch of 'Lost Ark Mobile,' a mobile version of its flagship IP Lost Ark, next year.
However, the mixed market response to NCS is due to the lingering impact of last year's performance shock. NCS's consolidated revenue last year was 1.5781 trillion won, a decrease of 11% from the previous year, and it recorded an operating loss of 109.2 billion won. This marked the company's first annual loss in 26 years. Last year's poor performance of the new title 'TL' and the decline in revenue from mobile games such as Lineage negatively affected the results.
NCS aims to establish a target of 1.4 trillion to 1.5 trillion won from existing IPs such as Lineage, and a minimum of 600 billion to a maximum of 1 trillion won from new titles including Aion 2.
Lee Hyo-jin, a researcher at MERITZ Securities, stated, 'Since Aion 2 targets existing MMORPG users, the new title's effect could be limited within the overall revenue structure that heavily relies on the genre.' They added, 'In the past two years, several new titles including one MMORPG and four non-MMOs have been released, but all failed to establish themselves in the market,' and concluded that 'it is difficult to expect this new title to yield different results than past releases.'
Choi Seung-ho, a researcher at DS Investment & Securities, stated, 'While existing IP revenue seems promising, it may be hard to meet expectations for new title revenue between 600 billion and 1 trillion won,' and added, 'Aion 2 is a game designed primarily for PC with an experimental nature, excluding automatic hunting, which may limit its performance in the domestic market.'
Consequently, there are concerns in the industry that merely enhancing graphics or system improvements may not suffice. An industry insider commented, 'NCS has been experiencing repeated user attrition and criticism with each new release, so a strategy that satisfies both existing fans and new users in terms of monetization structure and content operation is urgently needed.'