After years of revitalization, the laptop market is facing a crisis due to the tariff war. In preparation for the tariff bomb, laptop manufacturers, who have been increasing supply to the United States, the world's largest laptop market, have temporarily halted shipments in the second quarter of this year. In a situation where market demand is not rebounding steadily, if laptop prices rise due to tariffs, demand is expected to decrease.
According to industry sources on the 2nd, laptop manufacturers have temporarily suspended shipments to the United States this month. Due to demand from distributors seeking to stockpile laptop inventories since the second half of last year until the first quarter of this year, manufacturers had been increasing shipments to the U.S. Research firm Canalys reported that laptop shipments in the first quarter of this year reached 49 million units, a 10% increase compared to the same period last year.
However, distributors, judging that demand is not rising sufficiently despite an increase in inventory, have recently reduced orders. Taiwanese PC corporation Acer stated during its first-quarter earnings conference call last month, "There is no emergency order demand, and there won't be a shortage of laptops in the short term as inventory in the U.S. market is sufficient."
The mood in the laptop market, which was initially optimistic, is rapidly declining. Expectations were high for growth in the laptop market this year due to demand for device upgrades following the end of Windows 10 support and interest in artificial intelligence laptops, but tariff risks have dampened that outlook. The United States accounts for 30% of global laptop demand, and if retail prices increase due to tariffs, consumer and corporations' replacement demand are likely to be curtailed. Since March, President Donald Trump has imposed a 20% tariff on products from China, the world's largest laptop producer.
With the urgency to find alternatives, laptop manufacturers are shifting major production bases to Southeast Asian countries, but the threat of tariffs remains ongoing. Trump has exempted mutual tariffs on key electronics such as laptops, smartphones, and computers but is conducting separate tariff investigations by item. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick noted, "The mutual tariff exemptions for electronic products are not permanent and tariffs will likely be imposed within a month or two."
Forecasts for laptop shipments are being continually revised downward. Market research firm TrendForce has lowered its growth rate forecast for laptop shipments this year from the previous 3.6% to 1.4% last month. An industry official noted, "If laptop tariffs are ultimately capped at a level of 10-20%, it may alleviate cost burdens and stabilize market sentiment, but if tariffs increase further, price hikes and weak demand will be inevitable." TrendForce warned that if the tariff bomb materializes, laptop shipments this year could decline by as much as -2.1%.