The impact of uncertainties in U.S. tariff policy and the intensifying U.S.-China trade war has begun to be reflected in the performance of the global semiconductor industry. While semiconductors were excluded from reciprocal tariffs, the Donald Trump administration has indicated that it will impose a separate 25% tariff on semiconductors. Additionally, with the strengthening of U.S. export controls on semiconductors to China, the losses facing U.S. semiconductor companies are becoming visible, drawing attention to the ripple effects on future performance.
According to industry sources on the 20th, amid growing uncertainty over tariffs, the world's top semiconductor equipment manufacturer, Netherlands-based ASML, recently reported weaker-than-expected order performance. ASML's reported orders for the first quarter of this year amounted to €3.94 billion (about 6.3 trillion won), falling short of the average market forecast of €4.82 billion compiled by Bloomberg. Furthermore, ASML projects its gross profit margin for the second quarter to be between 50% and 53%, significantly widening the forecast range due to uncertainties regarding tariff impacts.
In this regard, Christoph Fucke, CEO of ASML, noted during the earnings announcement that "recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment, and the situation will remain dynamic for some time."
ASML is a 'super乙' company that exclusively produces extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, which is essential for advanced semiconductor mass production. Given that major global semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, are customers that utilize ASML equipment, ASML's performance has also been considered a barometer for the semiconductor market. If ASML's orders fall short of expectations, it can be interpreted that client companies are taking a more conservative outlook on demand forecasts and delaying or withholding equipment investments.
Especially in the current situation, both the demand for technology and the expansion of geopolitical risks, such as tariff uncertainties, are significant factors influencing semiconductor equipment investment decisions. Additionally, ASML could be subject to tariff impacts when exporting equipment final assembled in the Netherlands to the United States or importing components necessary for items produced in the United States.
Kim Hyung-tae, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp, stated, "ASML's new orders dropped sharply compared to the previous quarter due to major clients' conservative investment stance and delays in plans," adding, "Concerns over tariffs on semiconductor equipment and components may also lead to weakened demand in the front end."
As the United States intensified its semiconductor export sanctions against China, the world's largest information technology (IT) consumer market, following the inauguration of the Trump administration, U.S. semiconductor companies are facing a severe impact. Recently, the U.S. Department of Commerce included NVIDIA's AI chip H20, which leads the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor ecosystem, in the new Chinese export permit items, thereby raising export barriers. NVIDIA estimated a loss of $5.5 billion (about 7.8 trillion won) for the first quarter of the fiscal year (February to April) due to tougher regulations making it difficult to export to China. Prior to the strengthening of export regulations, chip orders from Chinese IT companies such as Alibaba and Tencent had surged, leaving NVIDIA in a difficult position.
AMD, considered a rival to NVIDIA, estimates that a blockage of exports due to the AI chip MI308 being included in the list of Chinese export permits will result in a loss of $800 million (about 1.1 trillion won). As the outlook worsens due to the Trump administration's reinforced export regulations on semiconductors to China, semiconductor stock prices have recently plummeted significantly, led by NVIDIA.
While semiconductor companies that already released first-quarter results generally reported strong performances, the demand concentrated in the first quarter due to tariff evasion significantly complicates the outlook for second-quarter results. The net profit of Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest foundry company, for the first quarter of this year was NT$361.6 billion (about 15.7 trillion won), which is a 60% surge from the same period last year. This performance also exceeded Bloomberg's estimate of NT$346.8 billion. Bloomberg analyzed that concerns over an impending tariff bomb from the United States led to an increase in demand for stockpiling high-performance semiconductors in the U.S., resulting in TSMC reporting better-than-expected results.
Samsung Electronics' preliminary operating profit for the first quarter, announced earlier this month, came in at 6.6 trillion won, significantly exceeding the market forecast of about 4.9 trillion won. Factors contributing to the strong performance include the launch effect of the Galaxy S25 at the beginning of the year and robust memory demand ahead of the anticipated tariff implementation, leading to a surge in DRAM shipments.
Song Myung-seob, a researcher at iM Securities, stated, "The increase in shipment rates in the memory semiconductor sector significantly exceeded initial forecasts due to demand to purchase products in advance of U.S. tariffs," adding, "In the second quarter, it appears that shipments will likely fall short of initial expectations due to the effects of increased shipments before the tariff was imposed in the previous quarter."