The Iranian government has begun to intensify forced deportations of illegal immigrants from Afghanistan, leading to a surge in the number of refugees entering Afghanistan. An average of about 30,000, reaching up to 50,000 Afghans are crossing into Afghanistan from Iran daily, exacerbating the chaos within Afghanistan.
According to The New York Times (NYT) on the 7th (local time), Iranian authorities began encouraging undocumented Afghans to voluntarily leave the country since March, setting July 6 as the final deadline and gradually increasing pressure. Baber Baloch, a spokesperson for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), noted, "Since March, about 800,000 Afghans have crossed the border, of which more than 600,000 were forcibly deported, not voluntarily returned."
As deportations intensify, thousands of returnees are flocking to the border area of Islam Qala every night. Local relief organizations are setting up temporary registration centers to provide basic food and sanitary items, but the capacity is woefully insufficient. NYT reported, "Most migrants arrive at the border with exhausted faces, and some are crossing over carrying young children without any belongings."
The rapid acceleration of deportations is linked to the recent armed conflict between Iran and Israel. Following the so-called '12-day war’ waged by Iran against Israel last month, Iranian authorities publicly raised suspicions that some of the Afghan migrants in the country could be spies linked to Israel. Such remarks are interpreted as having stimulated the existing distrust and dissatisfaction towards Afghans in society, thereby providing a kind of justification for the government's deportation policy.
In fact, Iran is the world's largest host country for Afghan refugees, with about 3.5 million officially residing in the country, according to the UN. Including the undocumented population, the actual number is estimated to reach 5 million. Most of these individuals settled in Iran to escape decades of civil war, violence, and the Taliban regime, but they have reportedly become targets of social discontent as Iran's economic situation has worsened recently.
The Iranian government maintains that it continues to accept refugees who go through legal documentation procedures, but on the ground, there are numerous reports of even legal residents being randomly arrested and detained in the streets or workplaces, only to be deported afterward, according to NYT. Some have been reportedly asked for bribes during enforcement operations or are transferred to the border area immediately after being held in illegal detention facilities, human rights organizations reported.
The large-scale repatriation is also worsening the domestic situation in Afghanistan. Currently, more than half of Afghanistan's population of about 44 million is suffering from extreme poverty, and millions are in a state of chronic food shortage. Additionally, since September 2023, Afghanistan has been receiving about 3.5 million returnees expelled from Pakistan and Iran without proper preparations, causing inevitable chaos for both the communities and the government.
Moreover, the situation is worsening as support from major donor countries has ceased. The UNHCR requested an emergency assistance budget of $216 million (about 195.3 billion won) for Afghanistan this year, but only about a quarter of that amount has been secured so far. In particular, the shock has been compounded as the United States, which previously provided about 40% of the UNHCR budget, drastically cut funding following the Trump administration's inauguration.
Jamal Arafat, UNHCR's Kabul office representative, warned, "The current atmosphere in Iran has escalated to a point where it is impossible to oppose deportations or raise issues, resulting in a virtually organized and indiscriminate expulsion frenzy."