Reports suggest that Ramzan Kadyrov (48), the head of the Chechen Republic who has ruled with an iron fist for 20 years, is in a terminal state. As Kadyrov, often referred to as President Vladimir Putin's 'right arm' or 'dog,' faces life and death, predictions are emerging that the fate of Chechnya will face a significant turning point.
On the 4th (local time), the Russian independent media Novaya Gazeta Europe reported that Ramzan Kadyrov has effectively been given a terminal diagnosis due to pancreatitis.
Pancreatitis is a fatal disease in which pancreatic cells die, leading to multiple organ failure.
Kadyrov has suffered from this illness since 2019 and was hospitalized in September 2023 due to acute respiratory failure. He has relied on a ventilator for over a year and a half.
Novaya Gazeta noted, 'Kadyrov's health has deteriorated significantly, to the point where he could not attend the memorial service for the forced migration of Chechens during the Stalin era in February of this year,' and added, 'This year in March, he was unable to issue a congratulatory message for the end of Ramadan for the first time in 20 years.'
The terminal diagnosis of a relatively young 48-year-old dictator is a forewarning of a massive aftershock to come.
On the 4th, The New York Times (NYT) reported that Kadyrov is hastening a hereditary succession by transferring power to his third son Adam (17) among his four sons.
Kadyrov inherited power from his father Akhmad Kadyrov, who was assassinated in 2004. Ensuring the transfer of power to his son as the third generation is the most important task for Kadyrov.
Although Adam is still a teenager, he is known to have inherited his father's traits, including a large physique, a propensity for violence, and a taste for speeding.
In particular, Adam is said to resemble his father Ramzan in his aggressive and brutal nature more than his elder brother Aslan and younger brother Eli.
In September 2023, when Adam was 15 years old, Ramzan publicly celebrated his son's actions after Adam brutally assaulted an inmate in a prison for allegedly burning the Islamic holy book, the Quran, stating, 'I am proud of my son's actions.'
At the age of 15, Adam was awarded the title of Hero of the Chechen Republic that same year, and in November, he was appointed Secretary-General of the Chechen Security Council, both being the youngest in their respective positions. In August 2024, he received the Kadyrov Medal, the highest honor in Chechnya. Currently, he holds multiple positions, including Head of the Presidential Security Service, Administrator of the Chechen Special Forces Training University, and Supervisor of the Ministry of National Defense.
In March, Adam had a private meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin, marking his first official appearance. Last month, he held an extravagant wedding, further cultivating an 'adult' image befitting a leader.
Chechnya is an autonomous republic located in the Islamic cultural region of the Northern Caucasus in southern Russia. It declared independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, but Russia dismissed this demand.
As a result, two horrific wars broke out in 1994 and 1999, during which tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of civilians lost their lives. After the wars, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Kadyrov as a surrogate to maintain stability coercively.
If Chechnya, known as 'the powder keg of Russia,' shakes again, it could create serious cracks in Putin's power base.
The problem is the law. According to Russian federal law, regional heads must be at least 30 years old. The 17-year-old Adam cannot immediately seize power.
When Adam's father Ramzan was 28 years old, his father Akhmad was assassinated in 2004. To adhere to the law, Ramzan appointed a surrogate for three years and was formally appointed as head after turning 30 in 2007.
It places a significant burden on the Putin regime to exceptionally recognize a minor dictator.
Middle Eastern media Al Jazeera cited sources within Chechnya stating, 'Putin has rejected Adam's succession as the heir.'
According to Al Jazeera, it is reported that Putin prefers General Afti Alaudinov, who commanded the Chechen Akhmat troops in the Ukraine war, as his successor.
Russian media Meduza reported, 'There are discussions about Chechnya either amending its constitution independently or nominally appointing a regent until Adam turns 30.'
Experts have warned that if the Kadyrov family relinquishes power in Chechnya, the region is likely to slide into severe instability once again.
Over the past 20 years, Kadyrov has eliminated potential rivals. Currently, there is effectively no prominent figure in Chechnya capable of replacing Kadyrov.
The U.S. think tank Jamestown Foundation predicted in its report this year that 'if Kadyrov disappears, powerful warlords, such as influential members of the House of Representatives or the Speaker, might engage in bloody infighting to seize his position.'
This represents the worst-case scenario for Putin. Russia is currently engaged in a drawn-out war in Ukraine, which it initially thought would end shortly. In the Caucasus region, Azerbaijan, which was formerly part of the Soviet Union, is showing signs of stepping away from Russia. With the national strength already severely depleted, another front opened in Chechnya is unfeasible.
Experts have warned that the Chechen separatist forces, which have been lying in wait under Kadyrov's rule, may re-emerge at the first signs of uncertainty or conflict.
Emily Ferris, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), stated, 'A Chechnya without Kadyrov is a massive headache for Putin,' adding, 'The Kremlin is at a crossroads where it must support a minor dictator or risk an uncontrollable power vacuum.'