As Russia exhausts its national power due to the war in Ukraine, countries that were once part of the Soviet Union are gradually strengthening their independent moves.
On the 2nd (local time), according to Reuters, the former Soviet state of Azerbaijan summoned the Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan on that day and demanded a thorough investigation and punishment of those responsible for the incident in which two of its citizens died in custody.
Summoning refers to a diplomatic term primarily used when one country's diplomatic authority calls in a diplomat from another country for negative reasons.
The 'incident involving the deaths of Azerbaijani residents,' to which the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs lodged a serious protest, occurred on the 29th of last month in Yekaterinburg, Russia.
The New York Times (NYT) reported that two Azerbaijani men, who were suspects in a murder investigation, died during a raid by Russian police.
Although Russian authorities explained the cause of death as heart failure and other issues, the Azerbaijani government protested, saying that the traces of beating found on the corpses were evidence of "murder based on ethnic hatred."
Tensions between the two countries had already been brewing long before this incident.
The relationship between the two countries rapidly froze when Russia shot down an Azerbaijani civilian passenger plane on December 24 last year.
On Christmas Eve, an Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane, which had departed from the capital Baku, Azerbaijan, heading to Grozny in the Chechen Republic of Russia, was shot down by a surface-to-air missile over southern Russia. Of the 67 passengers on board, 38 lost their lives.
Russia immediately expressed regret, calling it a "tragic misfire." However, Azerbaijan deemed it an 'intentional attack.'
The New York Times reported, "Since this incident, anti-Russian sentiment in Azerbaijan has reached its peak."
Once again, following the incident involving the deaths of Azerbaijani residents, Azerbaijan raided the offices of Russian state media within its territory and detained two Russian journalists.
They then arrested 15 Russian nationals on charges of drug trafficking and cybercrime. They also closed the Russian cultural center and canceled Russian cultural events, taking these aggressive measures within less than a week after the incident occurred.
Diplomatic circles have assessed that "practically severing diplomatic ties or actions close to the brink of war are taking place."
Azerbaijan is an oil-producing country that gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Although it is a small country with a population of about 10 million, it has abundant oil in the Caspian Sea and has strengthened its economic power by supplying natural gas to Europe.
Historically, Azerbaijan has always remained under strong Russian influence. However, as Russia became tied up with the war in Ukraine, the situation changed.
When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Azerbaijan initiated the long-cherished Nagorno-Karabakh war the following year.
This region originally belonged to Armenia, which has a majority of Christian residents. During the Soviet era, it became a conflict area as it transitioned to Azerbaijan, which had a strong Turkish Muslim influence.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has ostensibly stationed peacekeeping forces in this region while secretly selling weapons to both countries to maintain its military influence.
With Russian forces focused on the Ukrainian front, Azerbaijan swiftly regained control of the previously disputed Nagorno-Karabakh by force.
Al Jazeera, quoting experts, analyzed that "Azerbaijan has recognized the vulnerabilities of Russia during the war" and that "it no longer sees Russia as a traditional ally or strong protector."
Traditionally, Russia has not tolerated neighboring countries that challenge its influence.
In 2008, when Georgia, which had gained independence from the Soviet Union, took a pro-Western stance, Russia decided to invade. As a result, Georgia lost the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The situation was different for Azerbaijan. Russia had already exhausted considerable military and economic power due to the war in Ukraine that has lasted more than three years. It does not have the luxury to respond to Azerbaijan in the same military manner.
Currently, more than 2 million Azerbaijani expatriates reside in Russia. These individuals are used by Russia to pressure the Azerbaijani government.
These people, who were once a bargaining chip in negotiations, have recently become a trigger for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
According to Reuters, many of them are exposed to discrimination, police violence, and hate crimes in Russian society. If incidents like this recent case of resident deaths trigger their discontent, it could lead to instability within Russian society with these 2 million individuals.
Russia has called for restored relations through diplomatic channels and has begun efforts to appease Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, Azerbaijan remains unyielding. It is rather accelerating its steps to break free from Russian influence.
Azerbaijan is strengthening military and economic cooperation with its 'brother country' Turkey, which shares a border, and expanding energy cooperation with the European Union (EU), with which Russia is at odds.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has recently stated in a report that "the conflict with Azerbaijan is a clear sign that the strong Russia that Putin sought is losing control over the space it once dominated" and that "as Russia's power weakens, Turkey and the West are quickly penetrating the gaps, leading to geopolitical shifts."