The long-standing speculation about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s potential downfall, which had remained at the level of observations and conjectures, has been officially raised for the first time through a public statement by a former high-ranking U.S. official. Amid the Chinese government’s strong media control, the theory about President Xi’s weakening power, which had been based only on indirect signs such as the purging of close aides and absence from the National People’s Congress (NPC), has entered a new phase following remarks from a former U.S. national security advisor.
Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor, said on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on the 27th (local time), “There is a clear power shift occurring in China right now,” adding that “Core members of the Chinese Communist Party, especially officials from the Ministry of State Security and ordinary citizens, are losing faith in the top leadership.”
Flynn accompanied the post with photos of Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Ding Xuexiang, Vice Premier of the State Council, and Chen Jining, Party Secretary of Shanghai, tagging six key figures from the U.S. conservative camp, including President Donald Trump. Having previously served as a U.S. Army lieutenant general and Director General of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), he is known as one who is familiar with the internal dynamics and military power structure of China.
Flynn’s remarks were immediately reported by major Chinese-language media, including the Taiwanese newspaper Liberty Times. The Liberty Times identified attempts at purging within the People’s Liberation Army as the key backdrop for the theory of Xi Jinping’s downfall and the ensuing countermeasures. It claims that President Xi attempted to counter Zhang Youxia by placing close aides He Weidong and Miao Hua in key positions within the military; however, He Weidong is under investigation for corruption, and Miao Hua has been dismissed. The media reported that “Xi Jinping still remains nominally as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, but in reality, military power is already in the hands of Zhang Youxia.”
Interpretations have emerged that Ding Xuexiang and Chen Jining, whom Flynn identified in the photos alongside Zhang Youxia, will be key players in the future reshaping of Chinese power. The Liberty Times reported a scenario in which, after negotiating with the opposition, Xi Jinping steps down from the General Secretary position, appointing his aide Ding Xuexiang as his successor, with Chen Jining becoming the Premier of the State Council and Zhang Youxia taking charge as Chairman of the Military Commission, forming a “three-person leadership system.”
However, the Liberty Times also reported another scenario. There are claims that former President Hu Jintao, former Premier Wen Jiabao, and Zhang Youxia oppose Ding Xuexiang’s appointment as General Secretary. They are reported to support Wang Yang, former Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), and Hu Chunhua, Vice Chairman of the CPPCC, in the succession scenario. Wang Yang is known as a reform-minded moderate bureaucrat who retired in 2022, while Hu Chunhua was named as Hu Jintao’s successor but has since been pushed to the sidelines.
The possibility of Xi Jinping’s resignation has been raised not only by Flynn but also by other former U.S. diplomatic figures. Gregory Slayton, a former U.S. ambassador to Bermuda, stated in an op-ed for the New York Post on the 28th that “there is a high likelihood that Xi Jinping will step down at the fourth plenum held in August due to health issues and internal opposition.” He asserted that “veteran figures like Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are already exercising actual power,” emphasizing that “this is not just a simple rumor but a sign that the power structure is genuinely being reshaped.”
Slayton cited several pieces of evidence: ▲ The recent renaming of the “Xi Zhongxun (Xi Jinping’s father) Memorial Hall” located in Pufeng, Shanxi Province, to the “Guangzhong Revolutionary Memorial Hall” ▲ Xi’s complete absence from public appearances during a two-week period starting at the end of May ▲ State media, including the People’s Daily, hardly reporting on President Xi during this period.
Chinese authorities have not commented on the related suspicions, and internal information leaks are also being thoroughly controlled. However, as former high-level security officials from the U.S. and Chinese-language media simultaneously raise the possibility of Xi Jinping’s downfall, the unusual signs within China’s power structure are becoming more pronounced.