"I will block the Strait of Hormuz."
This is a phrase that Iran has wielded like a "sword of Damocles" for decades. Recently, amid the crisis of full-scale war with Israel, this phrase has repeatedly emerged. The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces threatened on the 21st, "We can block the strait if we want to." The world has become tense.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Oil from key oil-producing countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), flows through this route to the world. It accounts for 30% of the global maritime oil transportation and one-third of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In particular, 99% of the Middle Eastern crude oil imported to Korea passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
If this area is blocked, international oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel, and the global economy could enter a paralyzed state. This is why it is referred to as "the lifeblood of the global economy."
However, once again, Iran's threats remained just words. On the 22nd, the Iranian parliament approved the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Following this, the threat of blockade reached its peak, but the Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), which holds the final decision-making power, did not approve the blockade.
Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1980, Iran has never fully blocked the Strait of Hormuz. All that has happened are limited cases of interfering with ship traffic.
① The first victim of the blockade is Iran itself… 'economic self-harm'
If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the first country to suffer will ironically be Iran itself. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as of 2023. At the same time, it is the third-largest producer of dry natural gas in the world. Oil and gas exports account for one-third of Iran's total exports, and this lifeline passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the 26th (local time), Deutsche Welle (DW), a German state broadcaster, analyzed that "Iran blocking the strait would be like cutting off its own artery."
Iran is suffering from the stringent sanctions imposed by the United States. If it actively blocks the only route that sustains its economy, it is highly likely to lead to self-destruction.
Currently, about 90% of Iranian crude oil is purchased by China. Oil traders mix Iranian crude with oil from other countries to disguise its origin, primarily presenting it as being sourced from Singapore or Malaysia. According to Iran International, the amount of Malaysian crude oil imported by China last year surged 54% from the previous year.
Iran International, a UK-based anti-Iran outlet, reported, "Iran is selling crude oil to China at about 20% less than the international price," describing it as "compensation for the risk of purchasing against sanctions."
Iran's dependence on China for crude oil has currently reached 90%. It was 25% in 2017, but surged after the U.S. reinstated sanctions in 2018.
Last year, China recorded daily crude oil imports of 11.1 million barrels, which is about a 2% decrease from the previous year. This was due to a slowdown in oil refining activities as the economy entered a recession. If the blockade of Hormuz causes supply disruptions, diplomatic tensions with China will only escalate.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "The first people who would be furious if Iran blocks the strait would be the Chinese government."
The blockade could also serve as a trigger for the collapse of Iran's domestic economy. A spike in oil prices usually accompanies extreme inflation. Experts assessed that if essential goods prices soar while the infrastructure in the capital city of Tehran is shaken by war, it would add fuel to the simmering public sentiment.
② The limits of a 'paper tiger'… must prepare for full-scale war with the U.S. Fifth Fleet
The U.S. Navy has its Fifth Fleet headquarters located in Bahrain, just hundreds of kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz. Aircraft carriers, AEGIS ships, and nuclear submarines remain on standby at all times.
Free navigation is a "core national interest." Iran's attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz would impede the free sailing of the Fifth Fleet and would soon be regarded as a declaration of war against the United States.
CNN pointed out that "a blockade of the strait would trigger a military response from the U.S. that Iran cannot withstand." Iran's naval capabilities are specialized in asymmetric power, such as fast boats, drones, and mines. Military experts predict that the chance of winning against a U.S. aircraft carrier fleet in a direct confrontation is negligible.
Physically blockading the strait itself is not easy. The narrowest part of the strait has a width of about 33 km. The navigation route for oil tankers spans beyond Iran into Omani waters. The areas Iran can control alone are limited.
Even if Iran scatters mines in large quantities to hinder navigation, it is unlikely to surpass the detection and mine-clearing capabilities of the U.S. military, which are among the best in the world. Ultimately, the situation may only allow for the seizure of oil tankers and limited surprise provocations rather than a complete blockade.
③ An outdated negotiation card… losing both substance and justification
During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz and even attacked passing oil tankers.
However, despite the surge in oil prices and soaring shipping insurance costs at that time, Iran never implemented a complete blockade of the strait.
The threat of blocking Hormuz was more of a negotiating tactic to draw the U.S. and the West to the negotiating table rather than a real strategy. It was a way to leverage the Strait of Hormuz blockade card to obtain desired outcomes like nuclear negotiations and the lifting of economic sanctions.
The situation has now changed. If it blocks Hormuz, it must turn hostile not only to its own economy but also to neighboring Middle Eastern countries like Iraq and Kuwait, which are vital for its oil exports.
The political media outlet Politico assessed that "the threat to Hormuz has now become similar to the story of the shepherd boy who cried wolf," stating that it has been repeated so often that it no longer shocks the market and international community.
Experts expect that instead of a complete blockade, Iran will continue to pursue "low-intensity provocations" such as maritime threats through proxy forces like the Houthi rebels in Yemen or piracy against vessels in the strait.