With the involvement of the United States leading to a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the U.S. has impressed upon the world the notion of "peace through strength." In contrast, China, which has positioned itself as a "global peace mediator," has received evaluations that it has narrowed its standing by taking a passive stance in this conflict despite being an ally of Iran.
The military conflict between the two countries, which began on the 12th when Israel launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear and military facilities, was temporarily resolved with U.S. intervention. The United States bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities on the 22nd and, the following day, requested Qatar to persuade Iran, achieving a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.
In contrast, China maintained a consistently passive stance during this conflict. According to the Washington Post (WP) on the 24th, the U.S. asked China to persuade Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz. However, it merely stated that "maintaining security and stability in the Strait of Hormuz is in the common interest of the international community,” without taking any substantial action.
Although limited, China did engage in some diplomatic activities. During an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on the 22nd, it proposed a ceasefire resolution together with Russia and Pakistan. Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping, after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated that "if the Middle East is unstable, the world will not be peaceful," urging the warring parties, especially Israel, to cease hostilities. While this was a statement supportive of Iran, there were no official material supports provided to Iran.
This stance contrasts sharply with China's previous role as a peace mediator in the Middle East. In 2023, China acted as a mediator to normalize relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which had been adversaries, and last year it mediated reconciliation among factions within Palestine. At that time, the prevailing assessment was that China's influence in the Middle East had increased.
WP noted that "China, which heavily relies on Middle Eastern oil, sought to present itself as a peace negotiator. However, the true power broker in the Israel-Iran war was the United States,” and that "China adopted a bystander position amid dramatic geopolitical changes."
Bloomberg also reported that "China's cautious approach in the Israel-Iran conflict revealed the limits of its ambitions and choices as a global diplomatic power," adding that "the Middle East conflict was a test for major power diplomacy, but Beijing did not respond to that opportunity."
The reason for China's passive stance is that rash intervention could potentially lead to greater issues. Unlike the United States, which can drill for oil and gas domestically, China is heavily reliant on importing oil and gas from the Middle East. In particular, Iranian crude oil accounted for 15% of the oil exported to China last year. Given that the damage to China has not yet become visible, direct involvement in the Israel-Iran war could inflict significant harm on China's energy security.
There are analyses suggesting that China lacks the capability for direct military intervention like the United States. While the U.S. has troops deployed in 19 areas across the Middle East, China has only one overseas military base in Djibouti near the Gulf of Aden. William Figueroa, an expert on China-Iran relations at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, told WP that "China has very little ability to directly influence this situation." Bloomberg stated that "even if China's core interests are directly threatened, its military influence in the Middle East is limited."