The aftermath of the United States' sudden airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities on the 21st (local time) in the operation dubbed "Midnight Hammer" is spreading beyond the Middle East to international politics as a whole. This military operation is expected not only to significantly transform the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East but also to act as a major "negative factor" for China, a key ally of Iran, in several respects.
In fact, China has been strongly criticizing the U.S. airstrike daily. On the 22nd, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China stated through a website announcement that it "strongly condemns the U.S. attack on Iran and its nuclear facilities, which are under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)" and noted that "the actions of the U.S. side seriously violate the United Nations Charter and international law, exacerbating tensions in the Middle East." Earlier, Chinese President Xi Jinping argued during discussions about the situation in the Middle East with Russian President Vladimir Putin that "focus should be on a ceasefire, not attacks on nuclear facilities."
Experts analyze that the current situation, where China openly sides with Iran while confronting the U.S., is due to several reasons outlined below.
① Possibility of collapse of the Belt and Road Initiative
The U.S. airstrike is expected to significantly disrupt China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a strategy aimed at establishing land and maritime routes connecting Central Asia and Europe to dominate global hegemony. In this strategy, Iran is considered a key partner for China.
According to a statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China last December, Iran has continuously strengthened its cooperation with China since signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on joint promotion of the BRI in 2016. In July of last year, the freight train operation of the "Kum (Iran)-Yiwu western route" between China and Europe also commenced. However, if the current Iranian regime collapses, the project is likely to face significant obstacles.
Moreover, the chaos in Iran could lead to the strengthening of armed groups in the Baluchistan region of Pakistan, which shares a border with Iran. This region is where the Gwadar port, constructed as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, is located, and insurgent forces are currently attacking Chinese infrastructure and personnel there. If armed groups capitalize on the chaos in Iran's governance, the Belt and Road Initiative projects will inevitably face setbacks.
② Impact on oil imports
The war in Iran has raised red flags for China's oil imports. According to Reuters, China currently relies heavily on Iranian oil, importing over 90% of its exported oil from Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had pointed out earlier that China is excessively dependent on oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz.
China has become a major customer of Iranian oil because of the aligned interests between the two countries. While Iran faces constraints on its oil exports due to international sanctions, China needs cheap oil. For this reason, Chinese oil companies have rushed to bypass sanctions to import Iranian oil. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Iran has illegally distributed its oil via secret routes while keeping the transponder for ship positioning turned off, and small refining companies in Shandong have previously purchased this oil at low prices.
However, with the recent U.S. military intervention, there is a risk that the Strait of Hormuz could be blockaded, raising alarms for China's procurement of Iranian oil. On the 22nd, the Iranian parliament voted to block the Strait in response to the U.S. airstrike and is awaiting the decision of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, China will have to look for expensive alternatives to Iranian oil, which is expected to primarily impact the Chinese refining industry.
③ Loss of influence in the Middle East
In recent years, China and Iran have played a counter-Western alliance role to check the influence of the West, led by the United States, in the Middle East.
Iran is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) led by China and shares a common ground with China in opposing the U.S. Together with China and Russia, they have conducted 'Maritime Security Belt' exercises in 2019, 2022, 2023, and 2024, thereby strengthening security cooperation.
Meanwhile, China has increased its influence in the Middle East by acting as a third-party mediator in conflicts. A notable example is a successful mediation in March 2023 to normalize relations between Iran (a Shia Muslim sect) and Saudi Arabia (a Sunni sect), which is relatively moderate. However, due to U.S. military intervention, the influence that the two countries built up in the Middle East has collapsed.
Experts predict that chaos in the Middle East is inevitable for the time being. This is due to the fact that both Israel and Iran are displaying hardline stances with the U.S. also militarily involved.
However, experts agree that the likelihood of China becoming deeply involved in Iran's war situation under the Xi Jinping regime at this point is low. They suggest that instead of directly opposing the U.S., which has impacted China through the tariff war, a scenario where China secretly supports Iran with asymmetrical weapons like drones is more plausible.
In fact, the day after Israel's airstrike on Iran, three cargo planes from China were spotted flying over Iranian airspace, raising suspicions that China may have secretly provided weapons to Iran.